# 851
The warning this morning out of Indonesia, that the H5N1 virus was becoming more easily transmissible, I took with a bit of skepticism. In my previous blog I mentioned that we'd not seen any widespread outbreaks. Something I would expect if this were true.
Now, a couple of hours later, we are getting some revised reporting on this story. A lot more hedging, mostly.
This from Forbes.
Indonesia's Fatality Rate From Bird Flu Rises to 87% (Update1)
By Karima Anjani
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bird flu has killed more than four of every five people infected with the disease in Indonesia this year, heightening concern over the nation's progress in controlling the virus two years after its first human case.
The H5N1 strain of avian influenza is confirmed to have infected 98 people in Indonesia since June 2005. Twenty of this year's 23 cases were fatal. Scientists have even found traces of H5N1 in the soil of potted plants, probably introduced in manure from infected poultry, said Bayu Krisnamurthi, chief executive officer of Indonesia's committee on avian and pandemic flu.
While the H5N1 virus has killed millions of poultry in about 60 countries, human infection is rare, with fewer than 200 fatalities recorded globally. Higher levels of the virus in the environment could put more people at risk of infection and provide more opportunity for it to mutate into a pandemic strain.
``There's an indication that the virus may infect humans more easily than it used to,'' Krisnamurthi told reporters in Jakarta today. ``We need to study this suspicion further. Hopefully it won't be scientifically proven.''
Disease trackers are trying to gauge whether exposure to fewer diseased poultry results in the same level of infection risk, said Amin Subandrio, who heads an expert panel for the Indonesian government's avian flu committee.
``Previously, confirmed H5N1 cases had been exposed to as many as 20 chickens. Recently, victims were infected from one chicken, for example,'' Subandrio said in a telephone interview today. ``Hypothetically, the virus might be more easily transmitted to humans from birds.''
No Significant Changes
Studies show no sign that the virus in Indonesia has undergone any significant change that makes it more dangerous to humans, Krisnamurthi said today. The higher fatality rate among avian-flu patients this year could be attributed to a delay in the commencement of antiviral treatment, he said.
So we appear to have to conflicting statements, issued reportedly on the same day, by the same person.
No significant changes in the virus, or a change indicating increased transmission between people?
I guess we get to flip a coin.
