# 2757
Over the past four months we've seen several reports that indicate that `something mysterious', and fairly serious, is going on with China's poultry operations.
Today, we get another piece of the puzzle handed to us, but it is still not enough to draw any firm conclusions.
First, excerpts from a Reuters report this morning on the sale of chicken feed in China.
Yes, I said chicken feed.
Bird flu, rural downturn ravage China poultry numbers
Tue Mar 3, 2009 4:42am GMT
By Niu Shuping and Tom Miles
BEIJING, March 3 (Reuters) - The impact of bird flu and the economic slowdown may have cut China's poultry numbers by about a third or more in the last month, executives in the poultry feed industry said on Tuesday.
Although China has not disclosed any significant outbreaks of bird flu or the extent of the impact on the industry, feed company executives say the sector has suffered a dual blow from disease and a drop in demand that could keep stocks in short supply into the third quarter.
"There have been very few restocks after the Chinese Lunar New Year. Poultry stocks could have fallen by 30 to 40 percent compared to last year," said one executive from a leading feed and poultry producer.
<snip>
The executive said many chicken slaughter houses were closed, including half of those in the largest poultry producing province of Shandong, mainly because of outbreaks of bird flu.
"Feed demand has been very sluggish. Besides bird flu, there are also other chicken diseases. Our sales have fallen by 30 percent," one official with a major feed producer in Shandong told Reuters. He asked that his company and name not be named.
"IT'S WINTER FOR THE INDUSTRY"
China has not officially reported any outbreaks of bird flu among chickens, and Chinese media have not reported the number of birds culled because of outbreaks. China only reported eight human cases of bird flu in January. Five people died from the H5N1 strain of the disease.
But feed officials told Reuters that outbreaks have also killed much of the poultry breeding stock, driving up prices for young chicks.
Taken by itself, this story wouldn't seem significant enough to raise any eyebrows. Essentially, the sale of chicken feed in China is off by 30% or more.
But when we put it in context, this raises some interesting questions.
China is the world's largest producer of domestic poultry. Some 12 billion chickens, and 3 billion ducks and geese are thought to be held at any given time. Not really surprising given the 1.3 billion mouths to feed in that country.
According to the Chinese MOA (Minister of Agriculture), Yu Kangzhen, their vaccination and biosecurity programs are very efficient, and very few outbreaks have been reported in China over the past year.
Last November, we received word via the dissident press (which admittedly has an anti-Beijing Bias) that large numbers of chickens were dying in Jiangsu Province.
There were reports (see Dissident Press Coverage Of Jiangsu Outbreak) that dead chickens were soaked in hydrogen peroxide, then frozen, and shipped to customers in Shanghai, Shandong, Henan and other provinces and cities.
Beijing denied that the H5N1 virus had killed any birds in Jiangsu, although they did admit finding traces of a `mutated' bird flu virus in some healthy appearing birds in that province.
Official: tide of poultry death not from bird flu in east China province
www.chinaview.cn
2008-12-20 00:55:57
BEIJING, Dec. 19 (Xinhua) -- The recent tide of poultry death in two cites in east China's Jiangsu Province was not from the infection of bird flu, said an agricultural official here on Friday.
The provincial agriculture and forest bureau held a press conference on Friday to clarify wrong reports by some media saying sample chickens, which were tested positive of mutant H5N1 virus from Dongtai City and its neighboring Hai'an County were among the dead chickens.
"The sample chickens for the test were living ones, which did not show symptoms of sickness," said Wu Peiliang, head of the bureau.
They planned to `change their vaccine' to deal with the problem.
Then in January, China reported 8 human cases (5 fatalities) of H5N1 infection from all around the country. Not many, given their population of 1.3 billion, but the first reported human cases in almost a year.
The Health Minister stated that nearly all of the victims had close contact with poultry. The Agricultural Minister maintained that the country's poultry was free of bird flu.
Accounts that were clearly at odds with each other.
Meanwhile, dead infected chickens were washing up on the beaches of Lantau Island in Hong Kong, presumably dumped into the Pearl River and carried to the ocean from Guangdong province.
Charges of cover ups became fodder for mainstream newspapers both in Hong Kong, and abroad. Time and Newsweek both carried major stories questioning the veracity of the Chinese denials of bird flu outbreaks on the mainland.
China suspected of covering up bird flu outbreak
China is suspected of covering up an outbreak of bird flu among poultry, according to experts.
By Malcolm Moore in Shanghai
Last Updated: 11:56AM GMT 04 Feb 2009The accusations came after at least 21 dead birds, including ducks and chickens, washed up on beaches in Hong Kong. At least three of them have tested positive for the H5N1 avian flu virus.
The Hong Kong government has said that there are no bird farms near where the corpses washed ashore and that it is liaising with the Chinese authorities to determine if they came from the Pearl River delta region.
Abruptly, at the end of January, we stopped hearing about human cases in China. This, despite warnings from the Health Ministry that more cases were `expected'.
Time Magazine ran a major story on the suspected `cover up'.
Is China Making Its Bird Flu Outbreak Worse?
By Austin Ramzy / Beijing Friday, Feb. 13, 2009
Farmers prepare to bury dead chickens on Feb. 5 in Chongqing, China, where nearly 12,000 chickens have been found dead in a local village since January 30. The cause of the death is still not determined
China Photos / Getty Images
The article quotes Dr. Guan Yi, a virologist from the University of Hong Kong and a true hero of the SARS outbreak, as being openly suspicious of China's claims of not detecting the H5N1 virus in their poultry.
Other well respected scientists, like Dr. Lo Wing-Lok of Hong Kong, a communicable disease expert, stated in early February that officials had been less than forthright about the spread of bird flu in poultry.
After the discovery of dead, infected birds washed up on the beaches of Lantau Island, he told Bloomberg news, "There's no doubt of an outbreak of bird flu in China, though the government hasn't admitted it."
During the first week of February, Dr. Zhong Nanshan - a well respected respiratory disease specialist and hero of the SARS outbreak - publicly stated that healthy looking poultry could be carrying the H5N1 virus.
He warned the public to be aware that poultry can be infected with the bird flu virus but show no symptoms. Zhong went on to say, "The existing vaccines can only reduce the amount of virus, rather than totally inactivating it."
Dr. Zhong's theory was not exactly warmly embraced by China's Ministry of Agriculture. They insisted that they've had no reports of sick poultry and had inspected healthy-looking birds, and could find no sign of H5N1 infection.
During early February, I wrote a number of blogs on this emerging story, including:
The Chinese Bird Flu Mystery
File This Under: Maybe We Can't Cure You, But We'll Be Happy To Touch Up Your X-Rays
China Defends Poultry Vaccination Program
Zhong Nanshan On Asymptomatic Poultry
But by mid-February, the story had pretty much gone cold. No new reports were coming out of China, and there was little information to add to our mounting suspicions.
I had some anecdotal evidence. A contact on the mainland told me that chicken prices were high, and supply was limited. But nothing really solid.
The last real information we received came on February 18th, when Hans Troedsson, the World Health Organization's (WHO's) representative in China, stated that :
The bird-flu virus was nearly entrenched in China's poultry population and represented a threat to world health.
Today's report from Reuters, that chicken feed sales are down by 1/3rd, that bird flu `outbreaks have also killed much of the poultry breeding stock', and that `many chicken slaughter houses were closed' paints a picture of a badly affected poultry industry.
China, which depends heavily on their massive poultry industry to feed their population, has put a great deal of faith in their poultry vaccination operations.
Not all countries, and their scientists, share that faith. In fact, many countries have decided that vaccines may do more harm than good.
In February of 2006, when the UAE (United Arab Emirates) was considering the introduction of bird flu vaccinations, Dr Linda Logan, USDA attache for the Middle East and North Africa, said "Vaccinations will mask and hide the symptoms. You won't see the birds dying [even though they are infected] so you may spread it to your neighbors."
There is growing speculation that this is exactly what has happened in China. That `silently infected' birds are spreading the H5N1 virus across that nation.
If true, this could severely impact China's food supply, not to mention expose more people to the H5N1 virus.
Of course, the information we have right now is anecdotal, and much of it is second and third hand knowledge.
The only people who really know what is going on with China's chickens are in the power loop in Beijing.
And right now, they aren't saying.
