Monday, June 08, 2009

Chan Warns Of A `Moderate’ Pandemic In Developed Countries

 

 

# 3308

 

 

 

Today Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization, addressed the Executive Board of the World Food Programme in Rome, Italy.

 

Her remarks centered on the efforts of the World Food Programme, but she took time to make some pointed comments about the impending H1N1 pandemic.

 

I’ve excerpted her comments regarding a pandemic below, but you may wish to follow the link to read her comments in their entirety.

 

Of particularly interest is her assertion that H1N1 appears poised to deliver a `moderate pandemic’ to developed countries, and a more severe crisis to developing nations.

 

 

 

 

 

Emergency services vital in a time of global crisis

Dr Margaret Chan
Director-General of the World Health Organization

 

<Snip>

Ladies and gentlemen,

 

We are near the start of the first influenza pandemic of this century. Up to now, cases of the new H1N1 virus have been detected, investigated, closely tracked, and reported in well-off countries.

 

On present evidence, we have good reason to believe that this pandemic, at least in its early days, will be of moderate severity in countries with good health infrastructure and adequate resources.

 

But we are wise to anticipate a bleaker picture in the developing world. Mortality at present is low, but we are seeing some disturbing signs.

 

This is a contagious virus that shows a preference for younger age groups. Most cases are concentrated in people under the age of 20.

 

Cases of severe and fatal infection are occurring in young adults between the ages of 30 and 50, and not in the frail elderly, as is usually seen during epidemics of seasonal flu. We know, too, that the risk of severe illness is greater during pregnancy and when certain underlying chronic conditions are present.

 

Around 99% of maternal mortality, which is a marker of poor quality health care during pregnancy and delivery, occurs in the developing world. As I mentioned, poor countries bear the greatest burden of chronic diseases, where the average age of onset is also earlier than seen elsewhere.

We must all be deeply concerned about the impact that even a moderate pandemic will have on vulnerable populations.

 

Once again, it does not take much to push people living on the margins of survival over the brink.

(Continue . . . )