# 4605
The wry hurricane joke in Florida is, if you are going to buy a home, make sure there’s enough leg room in the closets.
It is only a half-facetious remark.
That’s where a lot of families rode out Hurricane Charley and Andrew.
A 40 second clip of Hurricane Conditions. Imagine this going on for hours.
As a native Floridian in my sixth decade of life, I’ve been through more than a few hurricanes and tropical storms. Fortunately, I’ve been spared the experience of being in the core of a major storm.
But that hasn’t diminished my respect for these tropical systems.
I was in Pass Christian a few months after Camille crushed the Mississippi coastline with CAT 5 winds and surge, and I helped retrieve my brother’s belongings from a devastated New Orleans just a few weeks after Katrina hit.
I’ve seen the destruction first hand, have done rescue work outside in the fringes of a CAT 1 storm (Hurricane Agnes), have ridden out hurricane force gusts aboard my boat (not recommended!), have evacuated to a motel several times in my life, and have sat hunkered down inside a well constructed home in CAT 1 to CAT 2 conditions.
Since I live only about 40 miles from the coast, and reside in what is euphemistically called `manufactured housing’ (actually, a 35’ 5th Wheel RV), I’m preparing now for this year’s hurricane season.
And yes, I’ll be evacuating should a Hurricane threaten.
Although the tropics don’t usually begin to seriously rock & roll until August, early season storms can occur. Below are a few notable June Hurricanes, including 1957’s Audrey – a CATEGORY 4 storm.
So Memorial day weekend isn’t too soon to be preparing. Hurricane Alma in 1966 struck Florida on June 9th.
A word is in order about the Hurricane forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Below you’ll find two forecast maps for Hurricane IKE in 2008 – six days apart – with the first showing a hit on Miami and the second a strike on the Texas Coast.
On September 4th they had the storm 5 days out from Miami, but instead it went in on the northeastern side of Cuba, crossed Cuba twice, then emerged into the Gulf of Mexico where it intensified and proceeded on to Texas.
Did the NHC screw up?
A closer look of the first forecast map will show that it struck Cuba well within the `zone of probability’ issued on September 4th. Miami was the center of the zone, true enough.
But five days out, the NHC said it could hit anywhere from Cuba to Jacksonville. So no . . . the NHC did not screw up.
The lesson here is, Hurricane forecasts are pretty reliable 24 hours out, but less so at 48hrs. The margin of error increases at 3, 4, and 5 days in advance. Which is why the NHC warns people to pay more attention to the `forecast cone’, than to the centerline.
This year, due to better forecasting techniques, the NHC will extend its Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings lead time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance and watches 48 hour.
But once again, if you are in the 48 hour `cone’, you need to consider yourself vulnerable.
Since my home would be untenable in any hurricane, I’ve already secured a couple of evacuation locations for myself should a serious storm threaten my area. I hope to get one or two more.
I’ve no desire to load up my car and start driving (along with hundreds of thousands of other evacuees) in search of a non-existent motel room.
Yes, there are usually public shelters opened in hurricane areas. But these should be shelters of last resort, reserved for those who were unable (or unwilling) to make other plans.
Besides, anyone who has stayed in one of these shelters will be quick to tell you that they leave a lot to be desired in the comfort department. If you can do better, you’d be well advised to do so.
I’ve got my 72 hr `bug out bag’ already packed. For a complete description, follow the link to Inside My Bug Out Bag, but here are a few pictures of what I keep at the ready 24/7.
I’ve also a `packing list’ of other items, and can have my car loaded, and ready to go, in less than a hour. I keep a serious first aid kit in the trunk at all times, and as I’m packing I’ll be running a fresh backup of my computer onto a USB Flash drive.
My `extra supplies’ will extend my ability to be self sufficient to a week or longer.
I also carry (in my wallet) my full medical history, just in case I’m injured or sick, and unable to provide it to emergency personnel. (See Those Who Forget Their History . . .).
Of course, I also have insurance information, Photo ID’s, some cash, pharmacy and Doctor information, and contact names and phone numbers for those out of the area where I can leave word of my status if need be.
If you don’t intend to evacuate (and if you are in a safe & secure location, you really shouldn’t), you need to make sure you can fend for yourself (and your family) for at least 72 hours – up to a week or longer .
Remember, after a major storm:
- The power may be out for days or longer.
- Phones may be inoperable (including cell phones).
- Your water may be off, or contaminated.
- Streets may be impassible, or dangerous, due to downed wires or tree limbs.
- And emergency crews may have their hands full and be unable to respond quickly . . . assuming you can even call for help.
After the storm hits is no time to be scrambling for things like food, water, or first aid supplies. Things that are relatively easy to do today, may be all but impossible to do later.
