# 7119
Last night I mentioned Helen Branswell’s piece on some potential challenges in developing an H7N9 vaccine (see Branswell On The Challenges Of Producing An H7N9 Vaccine), and recounted some of the hurdles that were faced six years ago in the creation of an H5N1 vaccine.
Given the uncertainties surrounding the growing of an H7N9 vaccine virus, and the as-yet unknown quantity of antigen that would required per shot, a report today out of Taiwan promising 200K doses of vaccine in `3 months’ could be more reassurance than reality.
Assuming this target can be met, with a population of more than 23 million (and an expectation that each person would need two shots, 28 days apart), 200,000 doses of vaccine would cover about 1 person in 230, or .0043% of the population.
Taiwan can produce 200,000 doses of H7N9 vaccine in 3 months
2013/04/12 17:02:44
Taipei, April 12 (CNA) The National Health Research Institutes (NHRI), a nonprofit foundation established by the government, said Friday it could produce 200,000 doses of a vaccine against the new H7N9 avian flu in three months in the event of an emergency.
"The NHRI could support Department of Health (DOH) policies to fight disease by producing vaccines if there were an emergency," said Su Ih-jen, director of the NHRI's National Institute of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology.
Production could be expanded by three to five times if the necessary equipment and medical personnel were increased, Su said.
"The volume should be able to handle an initial outbreak of the new H7N9 avian flu," Su said.
Exactly how they define `handling an initial H7N9 outbreak’ is a fine point upon which this article does not elaborate.
During the early days of the H1N1 outbreak of 2009, many countries, and public health agencies, issued `forward looking’ forecasts suggesting that vaccines would be available before the start of the fall flu season (see Unforgiving Numbers).
By late July (see Murphy's Laws And Vaccine Production) we were already seeing gaps in these promises, although headlines like Swine flu vaccine to ship in September, says GlaxoSmithKline continued to reassure.
Pandemic vaccination in the United Kingdom didn’t actually become available until October, 21st 2009.
Like the well worn plot contrivance known as a Deus ex Machina (Latin: "god from the machine"), vaccines are often trotted out as the ultimate solution to a pandemic.
History has shown otherwise.
Vaccines rarely arrive fast enough, or in sufficient quantity, to have much of an impact on the first couple of pandemic waves.
Vaccines can and do have value during and after a pandemic. But more as a mopping up tool, and to raise overall community immunity for subsequent waves.
Regardless of what virus causes the next pandemic, the reality is that we’ll likely be more reliant upon NPIs, or Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (social distancing, handwashing, masks, gloves) than we will vaccines.
