Photo Credit NOAA
# 7538
While the Atlantic has yet to produce a full fledged hurricane this year, we are only just now entering the peak of the tropical development season (see August Tropical Climatology).
With four months left in this year’s hurricane season (which ends Nov 30th) there there remains ample opportunity for the Atlantic to serve up some seriously dangerous weather.
Yesterday Professor William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado University’s Department of Atmospheric Science released their August update for this year’s hurricane Forecast, and they are continuing to call for an above average hurricane season.
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013
We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major
hurricane landfall.
(as of 2 August 2013)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2
The authors are forecasting 14 more named storms, 8 of which are forecast to reach hurricane force, and 3 `major hurricane’ status.
While it isn’t possible to forecast where these storms may go, or what cities they may strike, the authors do provide `probabilities’ of a major hurricane strike on the U.S. coastline.
For more on landfall probabilities, you may wish to visit:
United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project
If you haven’t already downloaded the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so. It is a short (12-page), easy to follow guide that will walk you through the basics of understanding (and surviving) hurricanes and tropical storms.
September is National Preparedness Month, but those who potentially live in the path of these storms (and that can be hundreds of miles inland) are urged every year to prepare in May, during National Hurricane Preparedness Week.
Some of my blogs on getting ready for this year’s tropical season include:
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 & 7
Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding
