Avian Flu Diary: NASA: The Approaching Solar Maximum

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

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Last week several major media outlets carried a story that claimed the earth `narrowly missed’ being hit by a `catastrophic’ solar flare last month. The story – which described a `Carrington’ class CME – was picked up, and repeated by a number of blogs.

And had it been true . . . it would have been quite the story.

But according to Spaceweather.com (an excellent resource for space weather data), no such flare erupted from our sun in July, as explained in this FACT CHECK

SPACE WEATHER FACT CHECK: Many readers are asking about a report in the Washington Examiner, which states that a Carrington-class solar storm narrowly missed Earth two weeks ago. There was no Carrington-class solar storm two weeks ago. On the contrary, solar activity was low throughout the month of July. The report is erroneous. The possibility of such a storm is, however, worth thinking about: A modern Carrington event would cause significant damage to our high-tech society. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

I described the infamous Carrington Event in some detail back in 2010, but briefly:

In September of 1859 Richard Carrington, a renowned English astronomer, observed and recorded a tremendous solar flare that – were it to be repeated today – would wreck havoc with our modern electronic infrastructure.

This solar storm induced electrical currents in the newly built telegraph grid, shocking operators and starting fires. Had it occurred today, much of the world’s electrical grid could be fried.

Another large (albeit smaller) event took place in 1921, but again, the technology of the day wasn’t terribly vulnerable to the effects of the storm.

However, in 1989 a geomagnetic storm fried several large power transformers in Quebec, causing a province-wide blackout. And in 2003, a number of satellites were severely damaged by an extremely powerful CME which also caused some power outages in Europe.

While it may not happen for decades, massive solar flares and CMEs are threats that NASA, FEMA, and other agencies take seriously (see Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA).

Last December the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events).

Making their top 10 list (coming in at #7) was:

7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms

"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.

And this year Lloyds of London issued a risk assessment for the insurance industry called Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid which calls another `Carrington’ class event inevitable, and the effects likely catastrophic, but the timing is unknowable.

And last year, with the next solar maximum expected in 2013, the UK government updated their National Risk Register For Civil Emergencies to include severe space weather as a national threat (see UK: Civil Threat Risk Assessment).

severe space weather – Space weather covers a range of different phenomena, including solar fares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle
events. Severe space weather can cause disruption to a range of technologies and infrastructure, including communications systems, electronic circuits and power grids. The ‘reasonable worst case’ for a severe space weather event is based on the so-called Carrington Event in 1859, which saw some of the largest space weather phenomena ever recorded.

As you can see, this isn’t some esoteric plot device for a cheesy direct-to-DVD Sci-Fi movie, or prophesy driven drivel: space weather is a serious threat than can, and does, affect life on earth.

Our sun is a variable star, and it goes through many major, and minor cycles. The best documented of these is the 11-year/22-year sunspot cycle.

Roughly every 11 years (it runs anywhere from 9 to 14 years), the sun experiences a magnetic pole shift at the time of solar maximum – a period of high sunspot and solar flare activity.

Every 22 years, the cycle completes, and the poles return to their `original’ position.

Our sun has, since 2006, been in a solar minimum or quiescent phase. Very few sunspots and solar flares. The next solar maximum was predicted to occur in 2012, but the sun’s sunspot activity has been slow to restart.

Yesterday NASA announced they are beginning to see real signs that the solar maximum may be finally in sight:

The Sun's Magnetic Field is about to Flip

August 5, 2013: Something big is about to happen on the sun. According to measurements from NASA-supported observatories, the sun's vast magnetic field is about to flip.

"It looks like we're no more than 3 to 4 months away from a complete field reversal," says solar physicist Todd Hoeksema of Stanford University. "This change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system."

The sun's magnetic field changes polarity approximately every 11 years. It happens at the peak of each solar cycle as the sun's inner magnetic dynamo re-organizes itself. The coming reversal will mark the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24. Half of 'Solar Max' will be behind us, with half yet to come.

(Continue . . . )

While the odds of us seeing a `Carrington Event’ during this upcoming solar maximum are undoubtedly low, they are not zero. Solar flares of this size are predicted to happen roughly every 150 years, so it may be decades before another one comes our way.

I certainly don’t advocate lying awake at night worrying about solar flares (I certainly don’t!). But I do believe that we all need to be prepared to deal with a variety of disaster scenarios.

The simple truth is, if you are well prepared to deal with an earthquake, pandemic, or a hurricane . . you are automatically in a better position deal with any other disaster, including low probability-high impact events like massive solar storms.

An `All Hazards’ preparedness approach, rather than concentrating on a single perceived threat, is by far the best way to go.

Whether you live in the United States, the UK, or anywhere else in the world, you can find good preparedness information at the following links: