Saturday, August 09, 2014

ECDC Epidemiological Update On Ebola In West Africa



# 8933


The ECDC has produced a new Epidemiological update, based primarily on the numbers posted by the World Health Organization.  The data we have is crude at best, with basically only the number of (confirmed, probable, suspected) cases reported from each country, and the number of fatalities.


Demographic information, such as age or gender, hasn’t been available beyond some anecdotal mentions in the media.


Due to suboptimal surveillance and reporting capabilities in these West African nations, and a reluctance of many of those sick to come forward – the case counts we have likely under represent the actual number of cases in the region. 


It is too early to draw conclusions over the apparent differences in mortality rates (Guinea 74% – Sierra Leone 42%), as the onset and progression of this disease has varied by country.  Differences in surveillance, reporting, and willingness of their citizens to seek treatment could greatly influence these numbers as well.



Epidemiological update: outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa

08 Aug 2014

On 8 August, the World Health Organisation declared the outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) evolving in West Africa a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).

The outbreak started in December 2013 and it is currently accelerating. The outbreak is growing in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and more recently in Nigeria, a newly affected country with locally acquired infections. Transmission has occurred in large cities of these four countries (Conakry, Freetown, Monrovia and Lagos).

As of 6 August, the cumulative number of cases reported was 1779, including 961 deaths, making this EVD outbreak by far the largest ever recorded in terms of geographical spread and number of cases and deaths reported. Of these, 815 (46%) cases including 358 deaths were reported in the past four weeks.

On 29 July 2014, WHO was notified of a probable EVD case in Nigeria. The case travelled by air and arrived in Lagos, Nigeria, on 20 July via Lomé, Togo, and Accra, Ghana and was symptomatic at the time of arrival.

As of 7 August, medical evacuations of EVD sick patients were performed to USA (two patients) and Spain (one patient).

The distribution of cases by week of reporting since the start of the outbreak is the following:

Weekly number of EVD cases in West Africa (Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria) up to 06/08/2014

All countries

Per country

Source: adapted from WHO (Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update)
Data for the week 32/2014 are incomplete.

Situation by country as of 6 August (source WHO)

Guinea: 495 cases (355 confirmed), including 367 deaths (case-fatality ratio 74%).
Liberia: 554 cases (148 confirmed cases), including 294 deaths (case-fatality ratio 53%).
Nigeria: 13 cases (0 confirmed, 7 probable, and 6 suspected), including 2 deaths.
Sierra Leone: 717 cases (631 confirmed), including 298 deaths (case-fatality ratio 42%).

Overview of EVD cases (confirmed, probable and suspected) and deaths in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, as of 6 August 2014


Read more

Latest ECDC Rapid Risk Assessment Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa

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