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#14,170
Last week, in July Tropical Climatology, I mentioned that July tropical systems tend to form in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or Eastern Atlantic. While not usually as powerful as the storms of Aug-Sep-Oct., their close proximity to the United States can cut down the amount of warning time.
While a bit unusual, this week the National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance that is already over land, in the south central United States, and is forecast to move south into the Gulf of Mexico around mid-week, at which time it could develop into something tropical.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Blake
A combination of low wind shear, warm gulf water temps, and a slow and uncertain movement make this a system that all interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor.
Tropical and sub-tropical storms occasionally form quickly very near shore, often leaving little or no time to prepare.Hopefully this system fizzles, but even it it does, this will be a good `dry run' for you to test your hurricane preparedness plans.
If you haven't already done so, now is the time to visit NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.
While this blog, and many other internet sources, will cover this year's hurricane season your primary source of
forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
