Avian Flu Diary: July Tropical Climatology

Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes

June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.
- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898

#14,157

Despite the formation of a pre-season named storm (see NHC: 1st Named Storm Of 2019 - Subtropical Storm Andrea) in late May, the first month of Atlantic Hurricane season has passed with nary a blip.

On average, we don't normally see our first named Atlantic storm until July 9th and our first hurricane until mid-August (see chart below) - so despite a very quiet month of June - we once again find ourselves slightly ahead of the curve.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

As the statistician proved who drowned trying to ford a river that was - on average, just three feet deep - averages can be deceiving. June and July hurricanes do form, but they are less frequent than those that emerge in August and September, and usually (but not always) less powerful.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-near-normal-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season

Despite this year's early start, and NOAA predicting a near-normal hurricane season, we have no way of knowing how many storms will impact the U.S. mainland, or the islands of the Caribbean.

What we do know is as the summer progresses, and the waters of the Atlantic continue to get warmer, storms tend to form further out to sea, and have a better chance of becoming long track, major storms.

As the graphic above illustrates, July tropical systems tend to form in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or Eastern Atlantic. While not usually as powerful as the storms of Aug-Sep-Oct., their close proximity to the United States can cut down the amount of warning time.

You can find much more on Hurricane Climatology at NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Climatology page.

As we've discussed so often in the past you don't have to live right on the coast to be affected by a land falling hurricane. High winds, inland flooding, and tornadoes can occur hundreds of miles inland.

From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information

So, if you haven't already done so, plan a visit to NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

While this blog, and many other internet sources, will cover this year's hurricane season your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes - and other major disasters - you may wish to revisit: