The Greatest Story Never Told

The continent of Africa is one of great contrasts. Egypt in the north, and South Africa in the south are, when compared to most of the rest of the continent, greatly advanced in communications, healthcare, and even politics. In between, there are dozens of countries with virtually no infrastructure, few doctors, and almost no coherent leadership.

Over the past 2 months, Bird flu has struck at least 5 african nations. I say at least, because many nations are not testing for it, and therefore may be infected. It would seem reasonable to believe this is true, unless migratory birds flew non-stop from Egypt to Nigeria.

In Egypt, we now have 11 human cases in a little more than a month. In Nigeria, and Niger, and everywhere else, none. Nada.

It stretches credulity that only Egypt, where living conditions are much more sanitary, and where communications systems have warned the populace about the threat of bird flu, is the only place to have human infections.

What goes on here?

The only answer that makes sense is that there are human infections in countries like Nigeria. They just aren't being reported.

Each day, on the African Continent, 6000 people die of some ailment or another. AIDS, dysentary, typhoid, malaria . . . the list of pathogens endemic there is nearly endless. Except in the major cities, like Cairo and Johannesburg, or Durban, relatively few have access to medical care.

If someone in Nigeria or Camaroon gets sick and dies, the villagers bury them. It isn't uncommon, so it isn't worth mentioning.

So it is possible that people are infected, and have died, from bird flu and nobody has reported it. Damn likely, in fact.

H5N1 isn't just another killer of people in Africa, it's a much greater threat. The primary source of protein for many africans is poultry, usually kept in or near the house. Admitting that their birds were dying would be, for many people, a death sentance for their families.

Assuming the government cared (a big assumption), they would come and kill your chickens. You'd be left without food or wealth, for you see, owning a few chickens in some parts of this continent is the equivilent of money in the bank.

If a chicken gets sick, better to quickly put it in the stew pot, and say nothing. If a few days later, the family gets sick, well . . . that's life (and death) in Africa.

There is little incentive for local governments to even test for bird flu. Any announcement of infection would be disasterous for the economy. There are precious little funds available to combat the threat. And telling people not to eat chickens, or keep them in the house, is an exercise in futility.

Better to persue the policy of Don't Ask, Don't Tell.

This is particularly worrisome because each new host invites another opportunity for mutation. And with the high incidence of AIDS, many of these people will become carriers, and shed the virus for much longer. In fact, those with AIDS may not die from the flu, as would healthy victims. Their immune system is weakened, and so they may not develop ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome), which is caused by a strong immune response.

At some point, the number of cases will exceed that which can be hidden. And I fear we will find massive outbreaks have occured. The WHO believes they might have a shot at containment of a epidemic if they are notified early enough. But they admit they would have to be on the ground within days of an outbreak, spreading a Tamiflu blanket throughout the afflicted area.

That is unlikely to happen in Africa. An epidemic could start, and kill hundreds, even thousands, each day before anyone sounded the alarm.

There's an old saying. What you don't know won't hurt you.

'Taint so, McGee.

'Taint, so.