Is Her Freudian Slip Showing?

I honestly don’t know what to make of this.

A newspaper account of a seminar given to health care workers in Canada, by Dr. Susan Tamblyn, who is listed in the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan (2004) as being a member of the Public Health Group, The chair of the Vaccine Working Group, and the chair of the Antiviral Working group.

She is apparently the Medical Officer of Health, Perth District Health Unit, Ontario Canada. And is a consultant to the University of Western Ontario, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. A Pretty impressive set of credentials.

Taken from St. Thomas Times Journal

Cautious eyes on avian flu
Expected in Canada within three months

Thursday April 27, 2006

By Patrick Brennan
Times-Journal Staff

The warning to health officials was clear Wednesday to those attending a seminar at St. Thomas-Elgin General Hospital -- avian flu is likely to begin affecting Canada within three months and, when it hits, at least one-third of the population is expected to be ill.

That was the message from Dr. Susan Tamblyn, one of Canada's leading experts on infectious diseases. She was one of two speakers at a seminar sponsored by the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit.

The article goes on to say :

"We're going to see it in Canada within the next three months," Tamblyn predicted. Increased air travel with people traveling routinely around the world increases the chance of this occurring, she said.

Hmmm.

There are several possibilities here. First, that the reporter got it wrong. Mixed up the arrival of infected birds with H5N1 and the arrival of a pandemic. But the details of the story are pretty clear. The reporter would have had to make multiple errors for this to be the case.

A second possibility is that Dr. Tamblyn simply misspoke. It happens. But there seem to be enough reiteration of the point to make that unlikely. Of course, she could just have been engaging in speculation, based on her personal opinion or intuition.

The third possibility is the chilling one. That she, and the government, know more than they are telling us. Suggesting a pandemic strain would arrive within 3 months is remarkable. Hardly the sort of thing one would expect to be carelessly bandied about by a high profile public health official.

So, for now, all I can do is pass this tidbit along. As I said, I don’t quite know what to make of it. Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe her Freudian slip was showing.

I guess we’ll find out, shortly.