It’s A Flu World
There are questions that always come up, whenever two or more flubies gather and talk:
Just how seriously do you take this threat? What odds do you give of a pandemic this year? How about next year? How bad do you think it will be? How much food do you have now? What’s your goal? How long before they have a vaccine? And the big one, will you hunker down and isolate?
Of course you get a lot of different answers, else why bother asking?
But most of the folks I’ve spoken to, at least the reasonably sane ones, seem to come down somewhere in the middle of the pack when
answering these questions. Sure, there are a few out there who believe the plague is guaranteed to arrive on our doorsteps this year. And a few that have an apocalyptic mad-max scenario in their heads as to the likely outcome. But most long-time flu watchers are a little less rabid.
Age seems to have a bit to do with the responses. Those of us old enough to remember the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Khrushchev threatening to `bury’ us, tend to take Avian Flu very seriously, but seem less panicked by it. Been there. Done that. Got the bloody T-shirt.
Younger parents of small children seem particularly worried, and I can understand that. The thought of a plague, one that claims children in very high numbers, is every parents nightmare. Those of us over 50 remember the scourge that was polio before the Salk and Sabin vaccines, and this would be 100 times more devastating were it to come.
But each day I talk with dozens of flunatics, read a dozen or so blogs, and have a bit of a sense as to how folks who follow this issue are thinking. What follows is not a scientific survey, but rather, my take on the current thinking in the flu tracking community.
Just how seriously do you take this threat?
Pretty damn serious. Almost a universal answer, I’m afraid. Even those who insist that this is a low probability, high impact problem will admit to taking things as seriously as a heart attack. Nobody wants to be caught flat-footed if a pandemic arrives, and so nearly all accept the threat is real.
What odds do you give of a pandemic this year? How about next year?
There is a wide range here, with low estimates around 5% this year, and 10% next year, to almost dead certainty within the next two years. I’ve gone on the record as saying I believe the chances are about 1 in 3 that it will happen in 2006, and 1 in 2 of happening in 2007. A 33% and a 50% chance, respectively. My sense is that the majority of flu watchers fall in line with those numbers. So for us, it is more likely that a pandemic will not happen this year, than that it will happen. And next year is a coin flip.
How bad do you think it will be?
The mood here is not quite as cheery. Six months ago, I would have suggested the odds of the pandemic being as bad, or worse than 1918 was small. Today, I’m less sure of that. We have new information that is, well, disturbing. Seroprevelance studies in infected areas have failed to detect any of the much hoped for `mild’ cases, where patients contracted the disease and recovered easily. The hope remains that the virus will become less lethal if and when it mutates to a H2H disease. But most people I talk with seem to believe a `light’ 1957 or 1968 style pandemic is too much to hope for.
How much food do you have now? What’s your goal?
I know a few people who have 18 months stockpiled, and are going for 2 years. A few more who are shooting for that 1-year mark. But most seem to be prepping for 3 to 6 months. The fear of going out during a pandemic in search of food is widespread. More from the problems dealing with long lines and potential civil unrest, than from the virus itself. Almost inevitably, everyone who sets a goal like 3 months, extends it once they reach it. Many are looking at ways to extend their capacity, by stockpiling seeds and fishing gear. Fear of long term effects, even an eventual famine, run high.
How long before they have a vaccine?
The longer someone has been following this story, the further out their opinion of when a vaccine will be available becomes. Newbie Flubies’ tend to latch onto the `at least six month’ mantra spouted by the government, and think that means ‘in six months’. Those of us who have been around the block a few times, are thinking 3 years or longer to get an effective vaccine to the masses in the US and Europe. As for much of the rest of the world: it will never happen.
And the big one, will you hunker down and isolate?
Probably evenly divided here, with the edge going to strict isolation. Most will certainly try to limit contact. Those of us with essential jobs will try to find ways to decontaminate before coming home. Most who will venture out of their homes in a pandemic are fairly pessimistic that they can avoid the virus, and simply hope they will survive it.
There are many who believe they can isolate themselves and their families for months on end and avoid the virus. I’m less certain that strategy will work. A pandemic could outlast even the most impressive family larder, and at some point, I suspect most people will be forced by circumstance out of their homes. The inclination though, for most, is to at least try to isolate.
As I said, all of this is unscientific, and is simply my take on what most flubies are thinking and saying. Most, I suspect, harbor somewhat darker fears about a pandemic, but are reluctant to voice them.
Yet despite this gloomy view of the future, most flubies are surprisingly upbeat. The chat rooms abound with laughter and gallows humor. There is a real sense of community, and yes, even hope for the future. Why? Because they are preparing. They are empowered by their knowledge of what may come. They are not going to be dependant upon a dysfunctional government disaster response if a pandemic, or other crisis, strikes.
And while prepping is expensive and time consuming, the feeling one gets from being prepared is priceless.
