REMINDER : NBC DATELINE BIRD FLU SPECIAL TONIGHT

Check your local listings. Should be 7pm EDT.

Those Who Do Not Remember History. . .

Yada, Yada, Yada. You all know the old saying. But it is true.

With the airing of a Bird Flu Special tonight on a major network, millions of Americans should wake up to the idea that we are facing a potential threat. How many will take this seriously is unknown. Many of us thought the Oprah Special a couple of months ago would have increased awareness and preparation, but it did very little it seems.

A new poll is out, and 91% of Americans apparently have done nothing to prepare for a pandemic. Only 6% admit to having laid in any extra food or water, despite the government’s pleas that all American Households begin stocking up. A pretty dismal report.

Worse, 48% claim to have `confidence’ in the government’s ability to handle the bird flu. Surprising, because the government itself has stated repeatedly that they had limited options if a pandemic occurred. Michael Levitt has repeatedly stated that States, local communities, and Individuals would be on their own. They could expect no help from the Federal government.

Amazing, even after Katrina, people continue to believe someone will come to their rescue in a pandemic.

I don’t know if tonight’s show will spur any action from the masses. Probably not. At least not in very many people. We may have to wait until there are bodies stacked up on curbsides waiting for pickup before some people realize there’s a real problem.

But at some point enough people will wake up to this threat that some shortages are likely to appear. The big grocery stores only stock a couple of day’s worth of food. The days of the storeroom in the back, with palates of canned goods waiting to be placed on the shelves is gone. Today all major food outlets use Just-in-Time deliveries.

It won’t take much, maybe 1% of the population deciding to stock up, to put a real dent in the supply chain. And when Americans see empty store shelves, they may just begin a panic.

We’ve seen this before.

In December of 1973, the United States was suffering through the first of the oil shocks, and gas prices had tripled. Americans were understandably nervous.

Johnny Carson, the King of Late nite TV made an offhand joke, a week before Christmas that the next shortage congress was worried about was of Toilet Paper. It got a small laugh.

The next morning, millions of Tonight Show fans ran out and cleaned the shelves of all of the available toilet paper. Some people bought shopping cart's full. By noon, there wasn't a roll to be had in most major cities. The supplies were, err, wiped out, so to speak.

That night, Johnny Carson went on the air to explain, and apologize. There was no shortage, it was all a joke. Only one problem: Now there was a shortage. As soon as new supplies were delivered and put on the shelves, they were snapped up by worried buyers. People were hoarding toilet paper out of fear, and the shortage continued.

Even tho the supply chain was unbroken, it took 3 weeks before normalcy returned.

Now, imagine that tomorrow the word goes out that Avian Flu is coming. Everybody rushes out to buy 3 or 6 months worth of food. The shelves will be bare in a matter of hours. And 95% of those looking to stock up will go home empty handed.

It happened in 1973. It can happen again.

So while I doubt we will see runs on the stores tomorrow, I’m going to Walmart today.

Just in case.