A Tin-Foil Hat of My Very Own


While I've always endorsed having an open mind, I've always felt it was important not to have it so open, that my brains fell out. So, when I hear a conspiracy theory, I tend to look for holes in it. Usually you can find one big enough to drive a truck thru.

But sometimes . . . .

The Chinese government has been acting oddly regarding Avian Flu for some months. And occasionally, reports from dissidents (not always a reliable source of information) have emerged that indicate something truly troubling is going on in that country. They have, of course, an agenda: To bring down the current communist government in Beijing. So one must take any uncorroborated stories with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Iflu.org has a commentary on one such report from Boxun, a dissident news organization that maintains that the death toll in China (as of Nov 2005) was far higher than the authorities disclosed.

http://www.iflu.org/?p=9263

There have been stories (unconfirmed) that entire villages have been wiped out by a mysterious illness, and the military has gone in and `finished’ the job, killing any survivors and burning their homes to the ground. Doctors have been warned not to speak of it, and numerous people in the affected area have `disappeared’.

At a time when China was officially reporting the number of infections in the single digits, Boxun was stating the death toll was over 300. And thousands had been quarantined.

Who do we believe?

Well, originally, I gave the Boxun reports very little credence. But I didn’t dismiss it entirely. After all, China did conceal the SARS outbreak in 2003. But Boxun, as I said, has an agenda, and would like nothing better than to paint the Chinese government as a villain.

Stalemate. At least until more information (that we can confirm) becomes available.

But since late last year, the Chinese government has acted, well; strangely.

While insisting the H5N1 was rare, and primarily a disease of birds, and that no Human-to-Human (H2H) transmission has occurred, their actions speak otherwise.

Officially, China has only reported 16 human cases of H5N1, with 11 deaths.

Yet they seem to mobilize tremendous assets whenever a human case is admitted. They have opened hundred of `fever clinics’ in cities whenever a case occurs, and broadcast advisories that anyone with a fever must report for evaluation. A bit over-the-top if Bird flu in humans is as rare as they claim.

They admit to placing hundred of people under `medical supervision’ whenever a human case is found, and go to great lengths to trace any infected person’s contacts with other people. Hardly the thing you’d do if you could only catch it from birds.

And officials have stated that H5N1 poses a `very grave’ threat to China.

Now, it could be, they are just exercising an abundance of caution. They are being good stewards, and are simply taking every precaution. A laudable policy, indeed.

But the thought keeps nagging me: What if the Boxun reports are true? Or at least partially true.

What if, last November; an outbreak of H2H did occur? Perhaps it was successfully contained by burning villages, and burying the survivors (yep, I know what I said). Then the actions taken since then would make sense. The Government would know that a H2H mutation was not only possible, it had already happened. They dodged a bullet last year, and expect another one to be fired at any time.

The pieces fit. But that doesn’t make it true. And so I’ve rarely mentioned any of this in my blog. Avian Flu is scary enough as it is, without adding unconfirmed, and highly speculative theories to the mix.

And I wouldn’t have today, except . . . a new report from Boxun has appeared. The spelling errors and poor syntax are common in translated articles, btw.

On April 7, Beijing announced to check people with fever. It did not say bird flu has been found in Beijing, but the article did say that bird flu (H5N1) is spreading among more animals (in addition to birds).

It is unusual for government to annouce checking fever who may contact animals frequently.

Ms. Zeng Jinyan - wife of a well-known rights activist - Hu Jia, said she received warning from friends who worked in hospital. The doctor told her not go to crowd, and read description about "plague


Is this another piece of the puzzle, or simply more anti-government propaganda?

I honestly don’t know. China is a closed society. It is run by a military government. They tell their people, and the rest of the world, only what they want them to know. Anything is possible.

While I hate to advance dubious and highly speculative information about Avian flu in my blog, these stories have been around for several months, and don't seem to be going away. Transparancy in countries like China and Myanmar (Burma) is non-existant. We are all left with a dearth of real information at a time when we all need the unvarnished truth. And that is troubling.

While I am still highly skeptical of these reports, I am mindful of their existance. It's probably nothing. Probably just propaganda. Simply the thing that nightmares are made of. And right now, there is no way to confirm or deny these reports.

For now, all I can suggest is that we watch what China does, not what China says.

And keep the tinfoil handy. If this keeps up, we're gonna need a lot of hats.