TAMIFLU STOCKPILE SENT TO ASIA

Today has been an extraordinary news day, with the news of the quarantines in Romania, admissions by the WHO in Geneva that a large number of human infections in China, Indonesia, and Vietnam had no known close contact with Poultry, and now, an announcement by Secretary Leavitt that the U.S. is sending part of its meager stockpile of Tamiflu to Asia.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L22562835.htm

According to Leavitt, who refused to specify how much of the antiviral we were sending, and exactly where it was going, "The United States government has just deployed treatment courses of Tamiflu to a secure location in Asia. The shipment is currently in transit and it will arrive later this week."

"It is a stockpile that would belong to the United States and we would control its deployment," he said.

The courses sent to Asia will be used to support international containment efforts in the event of a human pandemic, but the United States could redirect the stocks for domestic use should it become clear that containment overseas was not feasible.

Now, this certainly raises questions. First, we have two stockpiles in this country. One is ours, and another is WHO stockpile. Leavitt makes it sound like we are sending our own stockpile, and thus far, the WHO has said nothing. So this is a bit ambiguous.

But if we take Leavitt at his word, we must assume (for now) that we are sending part of our national stockpile of Tamiflu, and right now, we have only enough of the antiviral to treat a miniscule percentage of our population. This is a pretty bold move, and is fraught with political risk.

Not said is where it will be used, and by whom. These meds could be intended for US military overseas, Embassy personnel, and US nationals working or living abroad. Or, and here is where it gets scary, we could be sending it to be used as a Tamiflu blanket to stop an outbreak somewhere. Right now, we simply don’t know.

In the US Federal Implementation Plan for Pandemic Influenza there are stages of Pandemic alert, and steps that would be taken when each stage is reached.

Stage 1: Suspected Human Outbreak Overseas (WHO Phase 3). Immediate Actions: "prepare to provide logistical support for the deployment of stockpile material to region, including identification of necessary equipment, supplies and personnel."

(That's where we've been for months)

In Stage 2: Confirmed Human Outbreak Overseas (WHO Phase 4 or 5). Immediate Actions include: "Deploy non-countermeasure components of the international stockpile and diagnostic reagents to support outbreak investigation, as well as technical assistance"

As to how the determination of a stage level will be made, it says :

"We will rely upon the WHO to confirm sustained human-to-human transmission of a novel influenza virus, but it is possible that confirmation will come directly from an affected nation or through our own scientists in the affected region"

So, there we have it. Movement of our Tamiflu stockpile to Asia, which seems to match a predefined action set out in our pandemic plan. One that is triggered when the alert goes from Stage 1 to Stage 2.

So the question on everybody’s mind today is, what the hell is going on?

When I know, folks. I'll let you know. For now, we can only wait and see. But the pucker factor has gone up a notch.