Adjustment Reactions
Wrapping one’s noggin around the concept of a major pandemic striking in the next year or two, one that could claim tens of millions of lives and wreck the global economy for years, is not an easy task. For many, it is simply impossible.
It matters not what the evidence is that one is coming, the concept is simply too big, or too horrible, for many to contemplate. And so they ignore the warning signs, bury their heads in the sand, and go on as if nothing were amiss.
While a pandemic is not a slam-dunk, it now appears to be more likely than not over the next year or so. We could still get lucky. After all, Swine Flu in 1976 disappeared into the night, and the SARS epidemic, which struck 8000 people worldwide in 2003, has (for now at least) receded.
But like playing Russian roulette, the more spins of the chamber, the better your chances of the hammer falling on a live round. We could get lucky again, but then, how much luck can we expect? The Avian Flu virus has persisted in the wild for years, has spread alarmingly across 1/3rd of the globe, and now can be found in nearly 60 countries. The opportunities for it to blossom into a pandemic are greater than any pathogen we’ve seen in many decades.
But the denial persists. And people’s eyes glaze over when you tell them of what may be coming down the pike. They cite Y2K as an example of fear mongering, and a reason why Avian Flu won’t happen, forgetting that Y2K was real, and was only stopped by a massive global intervention by millions of computer programmers. Y2K wasn’t a disaster because people took it seriously, and did something about it.
We live in a world that is constantly warning us about threats. Mad Cow disease, Iranian nuclear aspirations, terrorism, street crime, high cholesterol, AIDS . . . the list is seemingly endless. Something, it seems, is bound to get you. Avian Flu is just another threat, and is lost in the background noise. We got thru the cold war without blowing up the world, didn’t we? The assumption is that we will muddle thru this one, too.
With every warning on Avian flu, there comes a disclaimer. It might not happen. It isn’t inevitable. It might go away.
I use them too, and with good reason. It would be irresponsible to claim that it will happen, instead of honestly reporting that it might not.
But people hear that, and it lessens the threat, often to the point of allowing them to ignore it. It’s a convenient `out’, and the vast majority of people choose to take it.
When I started this blog, it wasn’t to act as some modern day Paul Revere, to spread the news of what I perceive to be a genuine threat. I started it as a personal diary, a way to keep track of what was going on in the ramp up to a possible pandemic, and to keep track of my own reactions and perceptions.
But something happened along the way. Something I didn’t expect. People started reading it. Not a lot of people by Internet standards, but far more than I ever thought would. And these people often contact me, letting me know they are reading it.
Along the way, I’ve converted a few, and they are now prepping for a pandemic. Mostly friends and family members, but a few strangers too. Hopefully some of them are telling their friends, and converting a few more.
As bad as a pandemic might be, those who are prepped, and knowledgeable about the virus and how to deal with it, stand a far better chance of surviving than those who persist in ignoring this threat.
And admittedly, prepping for a pandemic is not an easy task. It can be expensive, very time consuming, and worst of all, requires acceptance of an ugly truth. That we are vulnerable to a novel pathogen, and that if it comes, things may change swiftly and not for the good.
But better to face this grim reality now, while there is time to prepare.
Every day I see people in public, people who are obviously oblivious to the looming threat. The information is out there, but they refuse to see it, or if they do see it, refuse to do anything about it. I shake my head sadly, and wonder about their fate.
I live in a state where hurricanes are commonplace. We’ve been hit repeatedly over the past 3 years, and the prospects are high that we will be hit badly again this year. Yet few people are prepared. Most will wait till the next storm is upon us before buying flashlights or canned food. They know it will come, know it could be devastating, but refuse to do anything about it. They believe that somehow, even after the Katrina debacle, that FEMA will save them.
Small wonder that 99% of the people out there refuse to prepare for a pandemic.
The cynical side of me believes that the next pandemic, when it comes, will be a global I.Q. test for humanity. It will test our ability to survive. I see many failing that test.
While there is still time, few will use it wisely. A real shame. But the denial runs deep, and nothing I say, or that the government is likely to say, will change that.
Personally, I've accepted the prospects of a pandemic, have confronted the ugly potential fallout from one, and am used to the idea. I don't live in fear, nor do I let this impending disaster rule my life. But I have prepared, mentally and physically, to meet this challenge.
I learned a long time ago, as a medic, that you can’t save ‘em all. People make bad choices, and suffer the consequences each and every day. But it's never easy to watch.
Some days, it seems, the best you can do is save yourself.
And for me, that is the hardest adjustment reaction of all.
