Fashionably Late
http://www.pjstar.com/stories/070906/TRI_BAB5HNUG.037.shtml
Red Cross: Prepare for bird flu
Organization advises to stock up on water, food; central Illinois could see virus as early as September
Sunday, July 9, 2006
PEORIA - Avian flu pandemic could hit central Illinois as early as September with migratory birds flying down the Illinois River waterway, and health officials are recommending households have two to three weeks of supplies in the event of widespread quarantines.
"Health organizations all over the world are watchful for the spread. This virus is mutating so fast. No one knows, but the theory behind pandemic is that this is a whole new flu strain and everyone is vulnerable," said Anne Fox, chief executive officer of American Red Cross Central Illinois Chapter.
"Without sending an alarm, no one knows how widespread disruptions will be. Maybe transportation will be affected. Maybe it will impact supply lines.
"We need to be prepared to be self-sustaining as a community. In a normal disaster, people help each other. That may not be possible during a pandemic flu."
Normally, the Red Cross recommends households have three days of supplies. With the threat of pandemic flu and possible interruption of basic services, the Red Cross is recommending up to three weeks of supplies including food, water and medicine.
The Red Cross, for which I used to be a CPR Instructor, has been a bit late coming to the Avian Flu party, but now is beginning to stir. About time, I’d say. This blurb, which appeared in today’s Journal Star, makes it clear they are concerned that a pandemic may be on its way.
Sadly, their recommendation of 3 weeks worth of supplies will be totally inadequate, if a pandemic strikes. But, it is better than having nothing. And for most folks, who are slow to realizing what is at stake, starting now to get 3 weeks worth of supplies may be about as much as they can do. A pity that, six months ago, when the U.S. Government first started talking about stockpiling personal supplies, the Red Cross didn’t join in. More people would be ahead of the curve.
"We're told to expect the flu to strike in waves at about six-week intervals," Fox said, noting that 40 percent of the population could be sick or absent from work caring for sick family members.
American Red Cross Central Illinois Chapter covers six counties with 385,000 people. The organization is planning for illness and absenteeism to affect up to 160,000 people in the region.
Alyssa Pollock, disaster preparedness coordinator with American Red Cross Central Illinois Chapter, said, "We plan for bulk feeding, but we're not sure of our own supply chain. Plan A means all grocery stores are operational. Plan B means we deliver food. Plan C coordinates with restaurants."
Both Fox and Pollock encourage individual households to prepare with stockpiled water, food and medicine.
Now, they are admitting the flu could hit in waves that last six weeks, but only suggest 2 to 3 weeks worth of food. Make sense? Not to me. And the six-week wave is probably low, most estimates say 6 to 12 weeks.
The earlier in the season the flu strikes, the more prolonged and severe it is expected to be. If it is late winter before outbreaks occur, it's expected to be short lived and give scientists time next summer to formulate a vaccine.
This little gem is of course laughable. Last week we heard it could take 10 years to develop a vaccine. Most scientists say we could have a `very limited’ supply in 6 months to a year. The idea that there would be vaccine developed, and distributed, over the summer is ludicrous. Additionally, pandemic influenza is no respecter of the season. It can strike during the summer months as well as the winter.
But the article did get some points across. As in the following passage:
Dr. William Scott, assistant clinical professor at the University of Illinois and medical director of the Center for Occupational Health at OSF Saint Francis Medical Center, said, "My expectation is we are susceptible to a pandemic situation. It is possible and probable. When and where and how intense is speculation, but it is foolish to think we are immune."
While Avian Flu has been swept under the news carpet the past few weeks, its threat has not diminished. Australia and New Zealand are taking this as a deadly serious problem. The U.S. government is preparing as if it will happen. For the most part, however, the rest of the world is sleeping.
Expect the calls to prepare to grow louder as the fall approaches.
This is not a drill.
