# 328
Nations around the world will be faced with immense ethical dilemmas should a pandemic strike. Vaccines will be in very short supply, and decisions will have to be made as to how to allocate them.
Japan debates national survival strategies to face possible influenza pandemic
By HIROKO TABUCHI
Associated Press WriterTOKYO (AP) -- Japan must debate whether children should be vaccinated before the elderly to protect the country's future in the event of an influenza pandemic, according to draft government guidelines released Friday.
The bleak guidelines, drawn up by the Health Ministry, also call for a study of the country's crematoriums to determine whether they are prepared for the many deaths expected in a serious human flu outbreak.
Concerns of a possible flu outbreak in Japan have risen in the past week after the virulent H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has caused more than 160 human deaths worldwide, was detected in chickens in southern Japan. So far, Japan has had one confirmed human case of bird flu, but no reported deaths.
Should a human flu pandemic break out and vaccine supplies fall short, the country must choose whether it wants to "minimize deaths" or "protect the future of Japan," the draft says.
The rest of the article goes into the pro's and con's of each decision. Towards the end, there is this:
The government says it expects 25 million people to seek treatment at hospitals - swamping medical services and bringing society to a standstill. The ministry says the public must step up personal hygiene and stock up on water, food and toiletries - and stay indoors if an outbreak occurs.
The 25 million seeking treatment at hospitals number is higher than most countries have admitted. Japan has a population of roughly 127 million people, so that would make nearly 20% of the nation seeking treatment at hospitals. The article didn't elaborate on how hospitals would extend services to 25 million people.
Elsewhere in the article, it mentions an official estimate of possible fatalities of 640,000, which by my calculations, means they are looking at a 1918 type event.
