# 381
In the wake of the closed door meeting in Beijing between Chinese health officials, the CDC, and the WHO (World Health Organization), news reports are filtering out as to what was discussed. This latest article is typical of the reportage, in that it stresses that H2H transmission has not occurred, but warns that we must be alert for changes in the virus.
This from the Hong Kong Standard.
Mainland experts warn of rapid H5N1 mutation
Chester Yung and agencies
Wednesday, January 31, 2007A mainland health official has warned the bird-flu virus is mutating rapidly though there is no evidence as yet of human-to-human transmission.
"The latest information reveals the virus has mutated, allowing it to combine with both the receptors of animal organs and human organs," Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases director Zhong Nanshan said after a conference in Guangzhou Tuesday.
Zhong said the trend was worth noting especially since there have been several recent outbreaks in neighboring countries. His comments were supported by other experts at a separate conference which opened in Beijing Monday, the official newspaper of China's Health Ministry said.
"The experts said that while there was no evidence yet of human-to- human transmission of bird flu, the highly pathogenic H5N1 form of the virus is continuing to rapidly mutate, and human infections keep occurring," Health News reported.
The paper said experts from the Chinese and US centers for disease control and the World Health Organization were among those attending the conference on bird-flu vaccines.
However, a microbiologist in Hong Kong called for calm, saying the mutation was not significant at this stage.
"It's obvious the virus has been mutating, but according to our information there is no significant mutation," Hong Kong University professor of microbiology Malik Peiris said.
"There is no significant mutation from last year to this year which causes particular concern," he said.
A government spokesman said the Department of Health was monitoring the situation but advised the public to remain alert.
Deeper in this article, it discusses the research of Dr. C.A. Nidom, a scientist at Airlangga University in Surabaya, who discovered H5N1 antibodies in 20 percent of 500 stray cats near poultry markets in four areas of Java between September and December of last year.
Again, quoting from the article:
The findings suggested the cats had probably been infected because they ate infected poultry.
Lo Wing-lok, an infectious disease expert in Hong Kong, said it is bad news whenever the H5N1 jumps species.
"With more species of mammals infected, that could be a sign the virus is adapting to mammalian hosts. If they are adapting to mammals, they could be on the way to adapting to humans, to become a human virus," Lo said.
The admissions made by officials coming out of this conference sound fairly ominous: "Rapidly mutating' . . . "allowing it to combine with both the receptors of animal organs and human organs" . . ."a sign the virus is adapting to mammalian hosts" . . . "advised the public to remain alert"
But there are also cautions in this report, caveats; warnings that the mutation required to create a pandemic strain has not happened yet. And reminding us, it may not happen.
Balanced reporting, I suppose. Or simply another indication that scientists are no more sure about what this virus will do next than we are. This is the first time virologists have been able to watch what they believe may be the birth of a novel pandemic influenza strain. Without a baseline, without a standard of reference, it's difficult to know what they are seeing, or precisely what it means.
The concern coming out of this conference is obvious. The H5N1 virus is a moving target. It has the potential to mutate into a pandemic. But for now, we simply don't know when, or if, that will happen.
And probably won't know, until it does.
