# 367
It’s the nature of flu watching from half a world away that many stories come across the news desk, briefly capture our attention, and then fade from memory as they are over taken by new events. Sometimes it takes days, even weeks, for us to hear the results of medical tests on suspect patients, or the details of journal articles alluded to in the press, but not yet published.
Rumors abound on the Internet, but most are just that: rumors.
Today, we are waiting on the results of testing of nearly 100 people in Indonesia, reported by the local media to be suspected of having bird flu.
In Egypt, the number appears to be a little more than half that. These numbers are fluid, nebulous, and trying to keep an accurate tally of them is like herding cats. My thanks, and respect, goes to the newshounds that do such a good job of this on the flu forums.
Some of these suspect cases have been hospitalized for a week or longer; although it is likely most of these patients will have something other than the H5N1 virus. Still, results are slow in coming.
We are now watching a media reported `cluster' in Indonesia (tests are pending), and each day 8 or 10 new patients arrive in local hospitals with bird flu-like symptoms.
We also await the results on the 14 year-old boy in Azerbaijan, the two deaths in Lagos Nigeria, and the results of the latest testing of poultry in Japan.
Since my article on the mysterious St. Carolus deaths last November, no new word has emerged as to what claimed 22 lives in that hospital. That is, apparently, still an open mystery.
The story from Boxun news, widely reported on the Internet last week that scores of people in Guangzhou, China were quarantined with either bird flu or SARS has yet to bear any fruit. Denials from the Chinese government filled the news for several days, and we’ve heard nothing else. I’ve not seen any new reports from Boxun on this story, and so for now, it appears to have disappeared from the radar screen.
Thailand reportedly has cleared many of the suspected cases of human infection of bird flu, but appears to be reporting aggregate numbers. It’s difficult to tell which cases are cleared, and which remain open. Their official count for 2007 follows:
Avian Influenza in human situation 2007
Since January 1, to January 25, 2007, the Bureau of Epidemiology has received reports of influenza or pneumonia cases in Avian Influenza Surveillance Network from the Provincial Health Offices and Disease Prevention and Control Regional Offices. The investigation and analysis were summarized as follows:
- Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 216 cases 40 provinces; Today reports are 16 cases. Five cases from Suphanburi, 3 from Kanchanaburi, 2 from Saraburi, and 1 each from Bangkok metropolis, Pathumthani, Prachinburi, Nan, Kampaengphet and Phichit.
- Confirmed human case of avian influenza 2006 = 3 cases, with 3 death cases.
· The first death case, reported from Phichit province, Tabklo district is 17 years old male, He had onset on July 15, 2006 and died on July 24, 2006.- · The second death case, reported from Uthai Thani province, Sawang Arom district is 27 years old male. He had onset on July 24, 2006 and died on August 3, 2006.
· The third death case, reported from Nong Bua Lampoo province, Non Sung district is 59 years old male. He had onset on July 14, 2006 and died on August 10, 2006.- There are 61 cases under investigate reported, of which waiting for laboratory result.
Some of these stories may remain unresolved. There appears to be little motivation for officials in some of these countries to fill in the blanks. Others are, thankfully, more forthcoming.
We need to acclimate ourselves to this `fog of war’, and accept that many of these reports will either be wrong, incomplete, or never satisfactorily answered. It is frustrating, I know. We watch these wisps of smoke, and try to latch on to them before they disperse, hoping to gain some insight into what is really going on.
While there is real value in watching these events unfold, and an opportunity to learn more about this virus and perhaps even detect an early sign of trouble, we need to maintain perspective. We could see brush fires like these all winter long, just as we did last year. They erupt, flare brightly, and then die out.
We’ve never watched the evolution, and possible birth of an influenza pandemic before. We have no baseline to compare it too. We can observe, and speculate, but until we see a change in the virus that enables efficient H2H (Human to Human) transmission, we really won’t know if this H5N1 virus will ever become a pandemic strain.
It is still only January, so I expect it to be a busy winter season and a bumpy ride.
