# 338
One year ago today, on January 20th 2006, I began this Avian Flu Blog with no concept that anyone would ever read it. I’d written several essays back in 2005 on the bird flu situation for a website and had started following bird flu in earnest in 2004, but only began actively writing about it with this blog site. My first post, here, could almost be re-posted today.
While much as changed in a year, a lot remains the same. Many of the same questions I had then, I still have now.
Of course, some things have changed.
In the last 12 months the virus has expanded its territory, and has now been reported in nearly 50 countries. We’ve seen evidence of H2H (human to human) transmission in several clusters, most notably in Karo. The CFR (Case Fatality Ratio) has seemingly increased over the past year, and now there are indications in Egypt that the virus may have picked up some Tamiflu resistance. The role of other vectors besides birds is only now coming under study, and it remains to be seen just how important that will be.
We’ve seen lulls in reported cases lasting weeks. Countries have gone months without reported outbreaks, declared themselves rid of the virus, only to find it comes back with a vengeance. Exactly how it is transmitted is unknown. And our understanding of how it affects the human physiology, and how to combat it, are woefully incomplete.
There are many mysteries yet to be unraveled with this virus.
The stakes, quite frankly, couldn’t be higher. Millions of lives could be lost in a pandemic, and life would change radically for all of us should one erupt. Whether that will happen is still a question mark. I don’t know. And I don’t believe anyone else does either. All we really know is the potential is there. And so we dare not ignore it.
The good news is, people are beginning to take notice. Personal preparations are still inadequate, almost non-existent, but awareness is growing. Corporations, and governments, are working on pandemic plans. While we may quibble over their assumptions (and I often do), at least they are planning.
It is my fervent hope that this blog ends up being a chronicle of how we avoided the next pandemic; that some day soon, I’ll be able to report on a cure, or a vaccine, or a change in the virus that renders the threat moot. I still have plans to fix up another sailboat, and sail off into the sunset. And that is something that is on hold for the time being, in part, due to the pandemic threat.
Lastly, it wouldn’t be remotely fair to take sole credit for the contents of this blog.
I belong to a greater flu community, one that is spread across dozens of blogs and forums, and personal contacts in the flu world.
I depend heavily on the research of the flu forum newshounds who work tirelessly day and night, and who keep us well informed of what local foreign language newspapers are saying. Along the way, I’ve learned where to look for these stories, and how to translate them, and do so myself on occasion, but generally find these folks beat me to it. Kudos to each and every one of them.
And my fellow bloggers in the flu world never cease to amaze me with their insight. No way I can mention them all, but the Revere’s at Effect Measure, SophiaZoe, Monotreme, Tina at The Next Pandemic, Orange at The Coming Influenza Pandemic? and of course Crofsblog are all sterling examples of what the blogging community should be. Sane and informative, without undo hysteria.
And less visible perhaps, but no less important, are the wonderfully knowledgeable posters on the flu forums. Once again, they are too numerous to mention them all. I learn from people like TomDMV, Snicklefritz, Corky52, RPMI, Rick, chacal, kr105, NS1, and scores of others every day.
Along the way, I’ve had the honor to meet, and become friends with, a number of flubies. Despite their funny Internet names and preoccupation with a somewhat disturbing future scenario, they have all been a delight to know and interact with.
And a special thanks goes out to everyone who has taken the time to write me over the past year. Your emails are deeply appreciated, as are your tips and suggestions on news stories. You too are a part of this blog.
For my part, I will keep doing what I have been doing. Trying my best to find, and post, the best information I can find on the avian flu story. Comforted by the fact that, come what may, I am among very good company here in the flu world.
