# 537
Today, an article entitled Greenfield Graves for the Bird-Flu Dead appears in the TimesOnline. In part I of my analysis, I concentrated on the apparent desire of the UK government to maintain the illusion of `business as usual' during a pandemic. Today, I'll go over the rest of the article.
The `hook' in this article is the statement that the UK, after the Winter Willow exercises, realized they needed 400,000 additional gravesites. It is an alarming number, and one sure to draw readers to the page.
But it is not an excessively high number, given past pandemics. This works out to be 1 death for every 150 citizens, or a 2% CFR with a 35% attack rate. Pretty much in line with the 1918 Spanish Flu.
Given that the H5N1 virus currently has claimed more than 60% of known victims, it would only have to lose 95% of it's present lethality to get down to these numbers. There have been other estimates, deemed alarmist by some, that the actual death toll in the UK could reach into the millions.
From the article:
Local government chiefs have been ordered to secure additional burial space as a priority after last month’s two-day exercise Operation Winter Willow, which tested Britain’s preparations for the grim reality of managing the dead and the sick and keeping the nation open for business.
The article takes pains to state that mass graves would not be utilized, that instead: the plan is to create dignified, landscaped cemeteries that could become a memorial for victims.
The Times has learnt that families of the dead would still be able to choose between a burial or a cremation, but that lengthy funeral services are ruled out. Faith leaders have been asked to devise short religious services for the dispatch of the dead and to delay memorial services until the wave of disease is over.
Beyond the disposal of bodies, the article also addresses life during a pandemic, including the anticipated closing of schools.
In areas where the flu strain is rampant, schools would close and parents are to keep younger children under what amounts to house arrest. Emergency planning chiefs anticipate that the disease would spread more quickly among children as they have more physical contact with each other. Scientific experts have warned that a two-metre gap is required between individuals to stop the virus spreading through droplets.
Parents would keep their children at home for a period which may last from six to eight weeks. The Department for Education and Skills is preparing online learning projects in order that children may continue their education at home. Examinations would also be delayed if a pandemic occurs during traditional testing periods.
One immediate disconnect in this plan is the idea that everyone must go to work unless sick, but working parents must somehow find a way to keep their kids home from school and under `house arrest'. Exactly how that is to be accomplished is left to the reader's imagination.
Ministers would relax the working hours directive, particularly for HGV drivers, who would work overtime to maintain distribution of fuel, food to supermarkets and money to banks. Other emergency laws requiring Parliamentary approval would be a suspension of strict financial reporting rules for companies where staff absences may make strict adherence to legal requirements impossible. Whitehall departments would operate around the clock and all key staff would have designated alternates. But ministers have ruled out any special treatment for politicians or senior civil servants. There are no secret stock-piles of Tamiflu for the Cabinet or emergency chiefs.
The underlying theme to all of this is that despite a pandemic, life will go on. People will go to work. Many shops will stay open. And disruptions will be minimized by the government. People will be reassured via broadcast media, urged to stay calm, and to act sensibly.
And this is a very stoic scenario. Reminiscent of how the Brits handled the London Blitz in 1940; going to work, carrying on normally, and ducking down into the tubes when the V-2 missiles rained down on the city, only to emerge and begin again when the air raid sirens ceased their wail.
Of course, much of the success or failure will depend upon the virulence of the virus, and how well the government's plans work when called into action. For the government's plans to work, people will have to accept the risks, and continue to work. Otherwise, it falls apart at the seams.
Sixty-five years have passed since the Battle of Britain, and times and people have changed. The UK is no longer made up of a largely homogenous society. People today are less used to shortages and the sacrifices that their grandparents and parents endured.
It's a different world today.
It is unknown whether the people there, or anywhere else, will see `their finest hour'.
Everything hinges on the the `human factor'. How people, and governments, will react during a pandemic.
And that is something we won't know until it happens.
