# 708
The drumbeat of warning articles continue, despite the dearth of recent reports in the media of outbreaks. This one is from Alabama and carried by the Montgomeryadvertiser.com.
Based on this report, unlike many localities, officials in Alabama seem to recognize that a pandemic could be very, very bad. They appear to be anticipating a 1918 style event.
Officials prepare for flu epidemic
By Kenneth Mullinax
Montgomery Advertiser
Ten times in the past 300 years, a new flu virus has swept the globe, killing millions who have no immunity to the virus strain.
The last pandemic in 1918 killed half a million people in the U.S., including 12,000 Alabamians. The next pandemic influenza outbreak could kill 2 million Americans and leave 40 percent of the U.S. population bedridden.
Closing schools would be one of the best defenses against such an outbreak, Alabama Department of Public Health officials have decided after studying the possible impacts of a major flu epidemic.
How school systems can work with health officials to curb the spread of a deadly flu outbreak is the topic of a tabletop exercise being held today at Faulkner University's Harris Hall. About 60 public health, state and education representatives will participate in the discussion.
In the 20th century, there have been three pandemic flu outbreaks in the U.S. -- the worst being the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic.
Pandemics occur when the flu virus undergoes such dramatic changes that virtually no one has any resistance to infection.
"It's not if a pandemic outbreak of flu will occur in Alabama, but when it will happen," said Skip Gray, a public health official hosting today's event.
Gray said the health department has targeted schools as a key weapon in the fight against a flu epidemic. Schools must be among the first institutions to close to prevent the spread of the disease.
Cindy Lesinger, Alabama Public Health's pandemic coordinator, said that the length of school closings in Montgomery would be based on a formula that is tied to the death rate among the population of those infected.
"If two percent of the people infected with the flu virus die, it's possible that schools will be closed for up to three months to reduce the transmission of the disease," Lesinger said.
While closing schools would help slow the spread of a flu epidemic, the economic costs would be staggering to the local economy, said Gray.
