# 714
The mantra, uttered by nearly every public health official around the world, is that another pandemic is not a matter of `if, but when’.
Scientists consider it all but inevitable.
The only question, really, is “When?”
The only answer we get on that score is: we are overdue.
We’ve seen 10 pandemics in the past 300 years, and they come around, on average, every 30 years. It’s been nearly 40 years since the last one. And right now, we have a virus out there, the H5N1, which appears to be a contender for the next pandemic title.
Quite simply, a pandemic could start at anytime. Today, tomorrow, next year, or if we’re lucky, maybe five or ten years from now.
Despite this clear clarion call, most people simply don’t accept the idea. The public, tired of endless warnings about global warming, terrorist attacks, the `big one’ in California, a nuclear Iran, and dozens of other threats, simply lump pandemic prognostications with the rest of them.
It becomes just part of the background noise. Media hype to sell newspapers. Another possible, but unlikely scenario.
Governments are clearly worried, and many are quietly spending billions of dollars to prepare, but most refuse to level with their citizens. They fear public `panic’, and the effects any serious reactions would have on the economy. They need citizens working, paying taxes, and consuming conspicuously in order to keep the economic engine purring.
Anything that might disrupt that, is simply too hot to handle.
And so the message remains low-key.
Yes, a pandemic could happen, but we are preparing for it.
Sure, if it happens, it will be very bad, and there will be many disruptions. Schools could close for months. Power and water could be interrupted. The supply chain might collapse. Many people would be out of work. Hospitals would be overwhelmed. Two million Americans could die along with tens of millions more worldwide. And no, there won’t be a vaccine, or enough drugs.
But don’t worry about it. You might want a couple of weeks of food in the house, but don’t bother preparing beyond that. There is no need to panic. Keep buying your new homes, fancy cars, big screen TV’s, and taking expensive vacations. We need the tax revenue.
If the governments of the world were actually capable of dealing with a severe pandemic, all of this might make some sense. But they admit, if a pandemic comes, they will be overwhelmed, and severely limited in what they can do. Local communities, they warn, will be on their own.
None of this is to say there aren’t some voices of truth out there. There are.
Michael Leavitt, Secretary of the HHS, has done an admirable job spreading the message. His 50 state tour, where he attended pandemic summits across the nation, showed his commitment to dealing with this threat. But the media paid little attention, and quickly lost interest.
Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, has been another voice in the wilderness, presenting the pandemic picture without undo hype or hysteria. He sugar coats nothing, but manages to convey the message with remarkable calm and poise.
But for every Leavitt or Osterholm, there are a hundred elected officials who remain embarrassingly silent on the issue. And so the public remains blissfully unaware of what may be coming. Even if they’ve heard the message, they don’t believe it, because if it were true, everyone would be talking about it.
And so we go forth, devastatingly unprepared to deal with a pandemic.
There is a solution. One that has worked before, and if done properly, could work again.
Our government, and governments around the world, need to find it within themselves to start to believe in their citizens again. They did, once. But somewhere along the way they’ve deluded themselves into believing that the public can’t handle the truth. That it is their job to shield us from the realities of life.
They’ve convinced themselves that asking their own citizens for help is an unacceptable sign of weakness.
It wasn’t always this way. During World War II, citizens were called upon to make great sacrifices to `save the world’.
And they did.
Millions of able-bodied young men and women volunteered to go in harm's way, and lined up at recruiting stations. Millions more, who remained behind, found ways to contribute on the home front.
Housewives shed their aprons and donned tool belts, and the legend of Rosie the Riveter was born. Volunteers collected scrap metal, and recycled for the war effort. Teenagers rolled bandages for the Red Cross.
People, just ordinary citizens, became block wardens and aircraft spotters. USO clubs were opened in nearly every major city, where volunteers made a home away from home for our men and women in the service. People donated blood, and time, and sweat, to assist in the war effort.
Sacrifice was expected, but not just on the battlefield. Ration stamps were a way of life, meatless Tuesday was a patriotic duty, and every household saved grease for the war effort. The media used their power to sell war bonds, and encourage civic participation.
And despite the fears, the worries, and the personal sacrifices; nobody panicked. We were in it together. And even when things looked very bad, and the outcome was in serious doubt, we pulled together. As a nation.
That is the sort of effort we need today, if we are to be ready for a pandemic.
In 1941, the government told us how bad things were, and asked for our help. And we gave it. We rolled up our sleeves, and turned a nation still reeling from 10 years of depression into a manufacturing juggernaut, and not only did it make the difference in the war, we were a better nation for it.
People volunteered, and in doing so found purpose in their lives. We joined forces with our neighbors, and our communities, to fight a common foe. By doing so, despite the horrors of four years of war, we came out of that period stronger, and more resilient, than before.
Today, we face a different kind of foe, a viral invader that we will have to fight on our own soil one day. With the help of our citizens, here, and around the world, we can combat this enemy. And we may find that the benefits of working together will make the difference between disaster and defeat.
Our secret weapon is ourselves.
I’m a great believer in the human spirit, and our ability to overcome almost any threat. But to do that, we have to believe in ourselves, and in each other.
In 1918, the Spanish Flu claimed more lives than World War I. That is the future we are fighting, a war against a viral pathogen that could kill more than another world war.
The time has come for our government, and the governments around the world to turn to their greatest natural resource, their own people, and ask for help. The pretense that they can `handle it’ must be abandoned.
If we are to win this war, we all need to be a part of the effort.
If the people are told the true nature of the threat, calmly and rationally, but without equivocation, they will respond positively. People will volunteer. Communities will prepare. And we will be better able to deal with a pandemic when it comes.
We can face the future with a volunteer army of millions of citizens, ready and able to help when disaster strikes.
But for any of this to happen, the government needs to take the lead and encourage the public to join forces with them. They need to admit they need our help, and actively work to provide ways for us to assist.
Now is the time for every community to setup a volunteer pandemic corps.
They need to provide training, and logistics, and financial support to enable us to provide disaster assistance, medical care, and essential services during a crisis. We need to begin providing basic home flu care training so people can take care of their loved outside of a hospital.
We will need people willing, and able, to step into thousands of positions when essential workers fall ill. And we need to identify, and train them now.
The media needs to join in, and support this effort. And the government needs to stop fearing its own people.
If the government fears panic, the best way to avoid it is to get people involved, and let them know they are part of the solution, not simply fodder for an uncontrollable viral attacker.
What is the worst that could happen?
Worst case, we might develop stronger communities, we might re-awaken the spirit of volunteerism in our society, and we’d certainly be better able to respond to any crisis, even if a pandemic doesn’t come anytime soon. We’d have a built in infrastructure to handle the next Katrina, earthquake, or flood.
And if the government started believing in, and trusting their own people, the people might just start believing in, and trusting, the government again. It's a two-way street, you know.
And as horrible as that sounds, I think we could survive that.
