# 1104
The Home Office of the UK also released a draft report yesterday on how their country plans to handle the excess deaths that a pandemic would bring. In this report, entitled Planning for a Possible Influenza Pandemic – A Framework for Planners Preparing to Manage Deaths [PDF 280KB, 35 pages], they are asking for input from professionals in this field and local planners.
This draft plan assumes 3 possible pandemic scenarios, although it warns that planners should be prepared to be `flexible and able to adapt'.
2.2.3 Three projected scenarios have been given. However, it should be noted that the national planning assumptions are meant only to be estimated projections. Therefore, plans need to be flexible and to able to adapt to locally emerging scenarios.
2.2.4 The base case scenario may see around 48,000 additional deaths across England and Wales, based on a clinical attack rate of 25% and a case fatality rate of 0.4%.2.2.5 A prudent worse case scenario may result in around 320,000 additional deaths across England and Wales, based on a clinical attack rate of 25% and a case fatality rate of 2.5%.
2.2.6 The reasonable worse case scenario could produce around 650,000 additional deaths across England and Wales, based on a clinical attack rate of 50% and a case fatality rate of 2.5%.
The logistics of handling a great many fatalities over a short span of time are truly daunting. Cause of death must be determined, and death certificates issued. Bodies must be transported to a handling facility. Funerals may (or may not) be held. And then there is the actual matter of burial or cremation.
And those whose job it is to handle these details will be as affected by the pandemic as the rest of the world. Absenteeism and illness will reduce their ability to handle this increased load.
While none of this makes for pleasant conversation, dealing with these issues now, before a crisis, is the prudent thing to do.
