# 1130
As that venerable sage, Yogi Berra, reportedly once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the Future."
Of course, that doesn't stop people from trying.
Today we have an article from KUNA, the Kuwait News Agency, warning that this year's seasonal flu in France (and presumably elsewhere) will be particularly virulent.
First the article, then a discussion.
Four million French to be hit by forthcoming flu outbreak
Health 9/25/2007 1:53:00 PM
PARIS, Sept 25 (KUNA) -- Around four million people in France are expected to contract the flu virus this winter, a relatively high number compared with previous outbreaks of the debilitating illness.
French daily "Liberation" quoted health sources as saying, in its edition published on Tuesday, that this years outbreak could take on "pandemic" proportions due to climatic factors and the strain of virus expected to hit the country.
Flu specialists here told the newspaper that predictions indicate that the flu will be the same as the one that hit Australia in July and August and it could hit France between October 2007 and the beginning of 2008.
The effect of the "El Nino" climate system will provide either neutral or cold conditions in France during the above period and the range of flu cases could be between 3.2 million and 4.7 million, with a median of four million, the health sources said.
France will begin selling vaccines against the flu on September 28 and these are available free of charge for children and elderly people, while others must pay for inoculation.
Last year, some two million people contracted the flu in France. (end) jk.rk KUNA 251353 Sep 07NNNN
To be clear, this article is about seasonal flu, not the emergence of a novel pandemic strain such as H5N1.
Flu seasons vary widely from year to year in severity, and as we've seen this summer in Australia and New Zealand, occasionally overwhelm the health care system. There are now fears that the rough flu season just now coming to a close in the Southern Hemisphere may be a harbinger of things to come north of the equator this winter.
While we remain concerned that the H5N1 virus, or another novel strain, will acquire the ability to be easily transmitted between humans, even in a mild flu year tens of thousands succumb to garden variety `A' Strains of the Influenza virus.
Some years, the toll goes higher.
As a young medic I got a front row seat to a particularly bad flu year in 1977. Out of left field, the H1N1 virus reappeared after a 20 year hiatus, and cut a swath through the population.
No, it wasn't a pandemic. But it was close.
Emergency rooms were swamped, many doctors and nurses (and EMT's) were out with the flu, and staffed hospital beds were almost impossible to find. Elective surgeries were canceled for weeks. It was a mess.
And of course, many people died.
Of course, the big question is, are we due for another bad flu year?Something beyond what we normally see?
Yogi Berra got it right, predicting the future is tough.
But the severe flu that has been circulating in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand over the past few months may be headed in our direction. Some scientists have suggested that this `A' Strain has drifted genetically, thus making it more virulent.
Flu season is just around the corner. Flu shots should be available in most places in the next couple of weeks.
While they may not be completely protective (particularly if the virus has `drifted'), this year seems to be a good year to get that shot.
Just in case.
