Wednesday, November 14, 2007

UK: Concern Rises With Only 41 Chopping Days Till Christmas

 

# 1250

 

 

The newspapers are having a field day, with worrisome headlines rolling across the wires every 5 minutes.    A small sample ensues.

 

Deadly bird flu hits Xmas turkeys The Mirror 08:32

FIVE million birds are kept within the six mile surveillance zone around bird flu... The Sun 07:50

UK bird flu case hits Christmas turkey sales Mathaba.Net 07:21

London: Farmers shocked as bird flu found in UK turkeys News.com.au 18:13 13-Nov-07

 

 

 

 

This, so far, is an economic story. One that, like the Bernard Mathews case, could have far reaching effects.   Much will depend upon how far the virus has spread, and if it is indeed becoming endemic in the UK.

 

The last headline I listed,  FARMERS SHOCKED AS BIRD FLU IS FOUND, is the most curious of all.  

 

Shocked?

 

We've seen repeated outbreaks in the UK since the beginning of the year.   There have been outbreaks in Germany, France, and the Czech Republic this year as well. 

 

At some point, we ought to be moving from the `We're Shocked!'  response to a `Maybe we'd better accept we have an ongoing problem and deal with it' reaction.

 

Or, maybe not.

 

Apparently it's easier to simply forget about the threat once an outbreak is quelled.  Convince yourself that we've defeated mother nature because as humans, we are smarter and wiser than a mere virus, and go on our way blithely unconcerned.

 

That way, we can go back to `business as usual'.   Which is always cheaper,  and feign shock when the same bad old things keep happening over and over again.

 

Bluetongue.  Foot and Mouth Disease.  Avian Flu.

 

Not that I'm picking on the UK.  We did the same thing here in the States with the Levee's of New Orleans, breathing a sigh of relief each time a Gulf of Mexico hurricane spared that city, but never bothering to go back to upgrade their first line of protection.

 

Ignoring the problem was easier than dealing with it.

 

The same way we ignore the larger threat of a pandemic.  

 

The `Scientists worry that the H5N1 virus could mutate and spark a pandemic that could kill millions' tag-line to nearly every bird flu story has lost its impact.  It has been repeated so often that its meaning has been lost to the reading public.

 

If a pandemic erupts, I'm sure millions of people will be `shocked'.

 

If the CFR is worse than the 2% currently touted as a worst case scenario, I'm sure governments will be `shocked' as well.

 

And if the Tamiflu supplies, based on a 10-pill course of treatment, prove inadequate . . .   well, we can all be `shocked' over that as well.

 

It's easy to be caught by surprise.

 

All you have to do is ignore the evidence mounting before your eyes.