# 1549
I get a lot of emails (thank you, btw!), and the most frequently asked question I get regards what is known on the bird flu forums as my PPF, or Personal Pucker Factor.
Just how concerned am I over the recent developments in India, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Indonesia?
Frankly, I have no special insight on this subject. I only know what I read in the funny papers. Nevertheless, people seem to want my take on this.
There really isn't a simple answer to this question. But I'll try.
Anytime there is a virus - known to infect humans with a high level of virulence - spreading around the world in animals, I am concerned. Past history has proven that occasionally such pathogens make the leap into a fully human adapted form, and we end up with a pandemic.
Yeah, I know. Not exactly the answer you were looking for.
Ok, let's try: "How alarmed am I at recent developments? Is this year different from last year?"
And here I have to say that my level of `alarm' is no higher today than it was last January. Based on what we know (not on rumors or speculation), this winter's bird flu flareups seem on par with last year's.
Personally, I don't see anything right now that overly `alarms' me.
This assessment, btw, is only good thru 0906 hrs EDT on January 27th, 2008, and by the time you read it, will have expired.
Oh sure, the potential for a disaster is very real. And it could even start tomorrow, or perhaps next week. I've no doubt that a pandemic is possible.
Frankly, I believe over the next few years, it is even likely. So long term, I'd rate myself as being very concerned.
But this winter could easily pass with another round of scary, but eventually contained, viral brush fires. A pandemic may not happen anytime soon.
So my short-term PPF remains moderately low, and stable.
Part of this mindset comes from my paramedic past.
While it's been a long time since I rode my rig to 10, 12, or even 20 emergency calls in a shift, I learned early on that you can't live, and function, expecting the worst all the time. It wasn't the actual calls that ran off the rookies, it was the anticipation of the next call that did them in.
This time of year, when bird flu stories come fast and furious, some people become transfixed by the coverage, and become convinced with every breaking news story that the end is nigh.
Well, we've been down this road before; with the chaos that was Turkey, the Karo cluster, and dozens of other incidents that burned themselves out. The end wasn't nigh then, and it may not be nigh now.
Of course, one of these days, they may be right.
What we need to be doing is using this time, call it a `grace period', to strengthen our defense systems (notably public health, hospitals, EMS, and our National Strategic Stockpile), and prepare for a pandemic. Maybe we have weeks, or months, hopefully we have years.
But we shouldn't squander this time.
For now, I'm reasonably well prepped, I watch the situation carefully, I network with knowledgeable people every day, and while I remain concerned, I am not overly `alarmed'.
That is always subject to change, however.
When it does, I'll let you know.
