# 1621
This blurb in Nursing in Practice about a Q&A session in the House of Lords about a possible pandemic reminds us that a pandemic is likely to be a long-term event.
It won't be over in a week, or a month, or perhaps, not even in a year.
The estimate of 6 months issued by the Health Minister Lord Darzi of Denham is a pure guess, and may be overly optimistic, but for planning purposes you have to pick a number.
The 1918 pandemic lasted at least 18 months.
Warning over length of flu pandemic
Wednesday 6th February 2008
Any future flu pandemic could last for up to six months, a government minister has admitted.
However, health minister Lord Darzi of Denham said the probable length of an outbreak would give enough time for a targeted vaccine to be produced.
He was responding to a question posed in the House of Lords by Tory Lord Swinfen, who had asked whether there would be enough time in the event of a pandemic to produce a vaccine.
Lord Darzi said: "It is very difficult to predict the exact timings of a pandemic. We are not even sure whether we can get a second wave or third wave of a pandemic.
"The first pandemic in 1918 had a second wave and third wave. The last two in 1957 and 1968 also had a second wave.
"We are predicting in our modelling that it will be six months, which will be enough time to create vaccinations with the strain that is infectious in the first pandemic."
Lord Darzi added that the government had enough stocks of the anti-viral Tamiflu to cover 25% of the population likely to be affected by a pandemic.
Estimates made by computer modeling at Los Alamos suggests that it would take 90 days from the time a pandemic strain entered the United States for the number infections to reach its peak. After that, the number of infections would begin to decline.
What isn't known is how many of these waves we might experience, and how much time their might be between them.
DOE/Los Alamos National Laboratory (2006, April 4).
Avian Flu Modeled On Supercomputer, Explores Vaccine And Isolation Options For Thwarting A Pandemic
Simulation of a pandemic flu outbreak in the continental United States, initially introduced by the arrival of 10 infected individuals in Los Angeles.
