# 1787
Peaking around the middle of March, and continuing on for perhaps another 60 days, Springtime has traditionally been the most active period for bird flu reports. Particularly human cases.
Although the history of these outbreaks really only go back about 5 years, the pattern has been pretty much the same each year. The summer is usually pretty quiet, and cases start building during the fall, reaching a peak in the Spring, then winding down again.
Reports over the next couple of months are likely to come in at a fast and furious rate. There will likely be periods of tension and uncertainty along the way. If previous years are any indication, the next few months are likely to be a roller coaster ride.
Many of us who follow these reports year round have become, admittedly, a bit blasé about them. Most of us, I think, are now looking for something more than individual cases or small clusters to raise our level of concern.
Those who don't regularly follow bird flu reports may, however, be alarmed by some of these reports. It is easy to get caught up in the reporting, and the speculation, they generate.
Early reports are often exaggerated, or sometimes just plain wrong. Suspect cases frequently turn out to have something other than bird flu. Clusters, when they have occurred, have up until now, died out quickly.
When I blog, I try to avoid unnecessary hyperbole. But often the newspaper reports I carry engage in breathless prose, designed to sell papers. There is not much I can do about that, except point it out when it occurs.
The important thing is not to get too caught up in the coverage.
Two years ago I stated in this blog that I wouldn't be surprised if a year or two from now, we were still watching the H5N1 virus, waiting for it to become a pandemic.
I stand by that statement.
While it could happen tomorrow, it may not happen for years. Indeed, the H5N1 virus may not be capable of adapting to humans. The next pandemic could evolve from a completely different virus.
For now, we watch and wait, and if we're smart . . . we prepare.
And that means personally (www.pandemicflu.gov), as a community, as a nation, and as part of a wider global population.
Modern science, along with the Internet, has given us a unique opportunity to watch a novel virus as it evolves and potentially moves towards becoming a pandemic. We are the first generation to actually have some forewarning that a pandemic may be on the horizon.
We need to be using this time wisely.
