# 1836
Well, according to microbiologist and bird flu expert Yi Guan, it can.
Prof Guan believes that with proper surveillance, bird flu viruses can be detected and eradicated before they `mature' into a human adapted form. This maturation he believes, is a slow process, giving man time to intervene.
The `catch' is that it requires `proper surveillance'.
In many parts of the world surveillance is minimal, and sometimes non-existent. The ability to stop a virus that evolves in a place like Hong Kong or Thailand might exist, but what of a virus that matures in Myanmar, Cambodia, Nigeria, or even Indonesia?
Professor Guan is no doubt correct that proper surveillance is an important goal, and that it might interdict a bird flu virus before it can adapt to humans.
We are, unfortunately, a long way off from that becoming a reality.
March 30, 2008
Proper surveillance can stop flu pandemic: expert
HONG KONG - AN influenza pandemic can be avoided if proper disease surveillance and control measures are carried out promptly and thoroughly, leading bird flu expert and microbiologist Yi Guan said.
Prof Guan, who studied the H5N1 bird flu virus after it showed up in people in Hong Kong in 1997 and has tracked its footprints all over the world ever since, is convinced that the world can stop the bug in its tracks if it has enough resolve.
'If proper surveillance is in place for animals and humans, yes, we can stop pandemic influenza forever. Not just for H5N1, it may also work for other subtypes of viruses,' he said in an interview over the weekend. 'We have the ability to remove pandemics if we have a long-term strategy.'
<snip>
'Pandemics don't happen suddenly, they have an early phase, mature phase, outbreak phase. The virus changes step by step, it takes a long cooking time,' he said.
'If a virus gets into humans in the early phase, the transmission ability is very low. At most, they infect their families, but it can't go further into the community.
'This phase is the golden point to control. Once it matures and becomes (efficient in) human-to-human (transmission), it will be too late.' -- REUTERS
