# 1917
Two and a half years ago the United States government issued a recommendation that all families should store and maintain a two-week supply of food, water, and essential supplies. Prior to that, FEMA and other emergency response agencies had suggested a 72-hour supply.
This change was brought about because of growing fears of a pandemic, and the experience of Hurricane Katrina, which showed it can take more than 72-hours for aid to arrive in a major disaster.
While the government is only urging a 2-week supply, because they believe it will suffice in most emergencies and is an obtainable goal for many (but not all) Americans, they wouldn't mind if you had more.
Numerous local governments, and health departments, around the country have recommended having anywhere from 2 weeks to 12 weeks of supplies on hand.
A recent Australian study recommended every family have a `food lifeboat' with 90 days supplies on hand.
And you'll find that many flu bloggers, and most flu forums, have latched onto the 90-day-minimum stockpile to see your family through a pandemic.
I've advocated a 60 to 90 day supply since this blog began in January of 2006. I've also stressed that these supplies need to be acquired in advance of a crisis, because once it becomes obvious that a crisis is upon us, the grocery store shelves will empty quickly.
Many people, however, still believe that JIT (Just In Time) prepping is still possible.
This week, I believe that myth has been busted.
Over the past few weeks a relatively small handful of individuals and restaurant owners have stockpiled extra rice as a hedge against its rapidly escalating prices, and that has caused some large retail outlets to run short. Buyers at Sam's and Costco, two major bulk distributors, have found either empty rice shelves or rationing at many locations.
While rice is currently the focus of these `runs on the store', other staples are reportedly in short supply as well. Walmart, owner of Sam's Warehouse, says they have no plans `at this time' to limit purchases of flour or cooking oil.
That almost sounds comforting.
Imagine what it would have been like if, instead of a few hundred people stocking up, it had been millions of families all racing to the store to buy a 90-day supply of food?
The days of stores having a `stock room' filled with pallets of food waiting to be put out on the floor are gone. Stores use JIT stocking, and many get replenished every day of the week. They know with amazing precision how many loaves of bread or cans of soup they will need until the next restocking.
At least in normal times.
Should a crisis, like a pandemic, suddenly rear its head the JIT model will crash. In a matter of hours the store shelves will be wiped clean.
We see this phenomenon here in Florida whenever a hurricane approaches, and in northern climes, often with the approach of a blizzard. Of course these are regional problems, and resources can usually be diverted from unaffected areas.
A pandemic, however, is a global crisis. And resources are going to be strained world wide.
Those who are not prepared in advance of a pandemic are going to find stockpiling difficult or impossible at the last minute.
Even the Wall Street Journal's Opinion page is suggesting that stocking up is a good idea for Americans. With the specter of continued inflation of prices, stockpiling makes financial sense.
R.O.I.
By BRETT ARENDS
Load Up the Pantry
April 21, 2008 6:47 p.m.
I don't want to alarm anybody, but maybe it's time for Americans to start stockpiling food.
No, this is not a drill.
You've seen the TV footage of food riots in parts of the developing world. Yes, they're a long way away from the U.S. But most foodstuffs operate in a global market. When the cost of wheat soars in Asia, it will do the same here.
Reality: Food prices are already rising here much faster than the returns you are likely to get from keeping your money in a bank or money-market fund. And there are very good reasons to believe prices on the shelves are about to start rising a lot faster.
This is not a crisis that is likely to go away anytime soon. There are many factors at work that are driving up food prices and reducing inventories.
Here are just a few.
- Some nations have resorted to ceasing exports of rice, to ensure they have enough for their own population.
- Australia, devastated by drought, has seen two major wheat harvest failures over the past two years.
- In Africa a disease of wheat, Ug 99, or Ugandan Wheat Rust, now threatens that continent with huge losses in grain production.
- One third of our corn crop is now being diverted into the production of biofuels like ethanol.
- A greater demand for meat (which requires grain to raise) in developing countries.
Whether you do it for financial reasons, or as preparation against a future disaster, having a stockpile of food, water, and essential items simply makes sense.
The flu forums are excellent resources for information on what to stockpile, and in what quantity. You'll also find good advice on how to rotate stock, tips on emergency cooking, and even recipes.
The links are on the sidebar of my blog.
The Australian Food Lifeboat, also available on my sidebar, gives a recommended 90-day supply checklist.
And pandemicflu.gov has this recommendation for all Americans.
Stock a supply of water and food. During a pandemic you may not be able to get to a store. Even if you can get to a store, it may be out of supplies. Public waterworks services may also be interrupted. Stocking supplies can be useful in other types of emergencies, such as power outages and disasters. Store foods that:
- are nonperishable (will keep for a long time) and don't require refrigeration
- are easy to prepare in case you are unable to cook
- require little or no water, so you can conserve water for drinking
See a checklist of items to have on hand for an extended stay at home.
The idea that one day you could run to the store and find the shelves bare is a foreign one to most Americans. But if we have a crisis, such as a pandemic, it could well happen. The escalating food crisis around the world can only make matters worse.
If you haven't created an `emergency pantry', now is the time to do so. Don't expect to complete this essential prep in one weekend. It will likely take several weeks, and some serious thought and planning.
The Federal government hopes you'll stockpile 2-weeks worth of food, water, and essential supplies.
I hope you'll do that, and more.
