# 1955
A year ago, there were hopes that the bird flu virus might be nearing the end of its `cycle', and that the threat of a pandemic was lessening.
On May 21st of 2007, this was the hot story.
Avian Flu Virus May Be Nearing End as Fewer Birds Die, OIE Says
By Jason Gale
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The avian flu virus that threatens to spark the first pandemic in almost four decades may be nearing the end of its natural cycle after it killed fewer wild and migratory birds this year, an international veterinary body said.
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``In the first half of 2007, countries reported fewer deaths of wild and migratory birds, which could indicate the disease is coming closer to the end of a cycle,'' the Paris-based group said in a statement today.
This theory was greeted with a certain amount of skepticism by public health officials, pandemic planners, and flu bloggers.
Since then we've seen a resurgence in outbreaks, with India, Bangladesh, and South Korea fighting prolonged battles against the virus.
Today, at a conference of scientists in Geneva, we get a different take on the situation.
This from Reuters. Follow the link, the entire article is worth reading.
Risk of bird flu pandemic probably growing-experts
Tue May 6, 2008 8:52am EDT
By Stephanie Nebehay
GENEVA, May 6 (Reuters) - The risk of a human influenza pandemic remains real and is probably growing as the bird flu virus becomes entrenched in poultry in more countries, health officials warned on Tuesday.
Some 150 experts are attending a meeting hosted by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to update its guidance to countries on how to boost their defences against a deadly global epidemic.
The H5N1 avian flu virus has infected flocks in much of Asia, Africa and parts of Europe. Experts fear it could mutate into a form that passes easily from person to person, sparking an influenza pandemic that could kill millions.
"The risk of a pandemic remains and is probably expanding," said Dr. Supamit Chunsuttiwat, a disease control expert at Thailand's health ministry who is chairing the four-day meeting.
Supamit noted the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus persisted on three continents and had caused human cases in Indonesia, Egypt and China this year.
"We are concerned that the spread through migratory birds hasn't stopped. Once the virus is established in birds, it is difficult to get rid of the virus and the risk (to humans) remains unless countries develop good control of transmission in birds," he told Reuters. The avian flu virus rarely infects people, but there have been 382 human cases worldwide since 2003, 241 of them fatal, according to the WHO, a United Nations agency.
Keiji Fukuda, coordinator of WHO's global influenza programme, told the talks: "We can't delude ourselves about the threat of pandemic influenza -- it has not diminished."
The timing of a pandemic "remains speculative," he said.
