A Fay Accompli

# 2242

When tropical storm Fay came ashore nearly 15 hours ago south of Naples, she was ragged looking at best, and had 60 MPH winds.

By tropical storm standards, she was less than impressive.

Normally, storms such as this quickly fall apart once on shore. Instead, Fay has actually pulled herself together and intensified over land, something which isn't supposed to happen.

She now has winds of 65 MPH, and a very impressive looking eye.

This remarkable piece of prestidigitation is described in the following NHC advisory issued at 5pm today.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL062008

500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS.

THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED.

Fay is now forecast to briefly emerge over the warm gulf stream, possibly pick up steam, then cross back into Florida on Thursday (between St. Augustine and Jacksonville).

So far, all I've seen have out of this storm have been some mild gusty winds and overcast skies (not that I'm complaining!).

But the final chapter of this most persistent storm has yet to be written.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE: 0800 hrs EDT 8/20

T.S. Fay finally weakened overnight before slipping off the East coast of Florida near Melbourne and back into the Atlantic.

Her top winds have dropped to around 40MPH.

She is drifting north, and right now is not expected to regain Hurricane strength before turning back into the Florida coast.