# 2324
Avian flu outbreaks, whether it be in poultry or in people, are primarily cool and cold weather events. The history has been that the number of incidents begin to rise in the Fall, and and peak over the Winter and early Spring.
Summers, as you can see by the chart below, are usually very quiet.
Given the coolest summer in the northern hemisphere in nearly a decade, and the fact that Fall is now officially here, there is a pretty good chance we will soon start seeing more avian flu activity over the next couple of months.
India - who along with Bangladesh faced major outbreaks in their poultry last Winter- is taking steps to try to prevent a repeat performance.
It is a widely held belief among Indian authorities that last year's devastating bird flu outbreak arrived via unregulated cross-border poultry trade with Bangladesh.
In an attempt to clamp down on such activities, new rules are going in place immediately.
India Bans Imports of Livestock, Products to Check Bird Flu
By Thomas Kutty Abraham
Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- India today banned imports of some livestock and their products from nations affected by the avian flu to prevent a fresh outbreak of the deadly virus, the commerce ministry said.
Purchases of domestic and wild birds other than chicken, unprocessed meat and meat products from avian species from all countries are banned with immediate effect, the ministry said in a notice on its Web site.
India also halted imports of live chicken, captive birds, turkey, ducks, eggs and live pigs from countries that have reported avian flu. The curbs will be in force until further orders, the ministry said.
Outbreaks of lethal avian flu have spread from birds to humans in 15 countries, mostly in Asia, and are ``not expected to diminish significantly in the short term,'' according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web site.
The H5N1 flu strain is known to have infected 385 people in 15 nations since 2003, according to the World health Organization. India killed millions of fowl in the past three years following outbreak of the avian flu.
How effective in controlling cross-border trade in poultry this directive will be remains to be seen. And whether that will keep India safe from another outbreak is unknowable.
India may not require a reintroduction of the virus from an outside source to see new outbreaks this fall.
We don't understand fully how the virus spends its summers. It may be quietly waiting for cooler weather in asymptomatic birds, or other hosts, that are already in the country.
We just know from experience that once the virus gets a foothold in a nation - even if it is `eradicated' - it tends to come back.
