# 2279
Tonight I'm going to outline a County Emergency Operations Officer's worst nightmare.
Sometime early, or perhaps in the middle of next week, it is highly likely that a densely populated section of Florida's eastern coastline may have an encounter with a major hurricane named Ike.
Below is an enhanced picture taken from the GOES-12 satellite this morning showing the most perfect eyewall presentation I believe I've ever seen.
Ike is turning into a classic Cape Verde monster, the type of hurricane we really haven't seen much of over the past 30 years.
At CAT 4 strength, and with a lot of ocean to cross over the next few days, anything could happen.
The storm could become a `fish', or turn north into the Atlantic and die over its cold waters without touching land. That would be a best case scenario.
It could, but the models don't give us much hope for that.
It could suck up some dry air, or encounter shear, and lose some of its punch. Always possible. But again, the forecast is that Ike remain a powerful storm. At least a CAT 3 five days from now.
And the path?
Well, 5 days out, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) can't tell us with much certainty. But the projected path doesn't look good for Florida.
Particularly south Florida. But remember . . . the path is uncertain, and a lot can change in 5 days.
But emergency planners have a problem.
There are 4 million people in Dade and Broward County (includes Miami). The projection tonight is for a landfalling Major Hurricane on Tuesday in their general vicinity.
That could change, but tonight, that's the situation.
Of course, you also have 75 thousand very vulnerable people living in the Florida Keys, with only one road in or out - and while the centerline of the track doesn't lead there . . . they are certainly in the cone.
And there are another 3 million or so more living in Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River, Volusia, and Brevard counties . . . all coastal, and all within the cone.
Right now, assuming a strike somewhere on Florida's east coast, there are probably 7 million people in harm's way.
And that doesn't count another 6 or 7 million in interior counties that could very well feel major effects from a storm like Ike. Many who live in trailers (umm, make that `manufactured housing'), and who would be ordered to evacuate for a major hurricane.
Emergency planners tonight are looking at their worst nightmare.
An uncertain but ominous forecast of a truly horrific storm, possibly headed for one of the most populous, expensive, and vulnerable pieces of real estate in the state.
Five day forecasts are, as stated before, uncertain. The cone of error runs anywhere from Jacksonville to the southern tip of Cuba by early next week.
Imagine being the head of an EOC (Emergency Operations Center) anywhere in Florida right now, but particularly one on the lower east coast. Imagine knowing that it won't be until probably Sunday, or perhaps even Monday, before we really have a handle on where this monster is headed.
Now imagine being the one who has to pull the trigger. The one who has to decide - long before you can truly know - whether to order an expensive, dangerous, and possibly needless evacuation of hundreds of thousands of residents.
One that ideally, you'd like 72 hours to accomplish - but you'll be lucky to have half that amount of time.
Guess right, and you'll save lives.
Guess wrong . . . and you could cost the state and its citizens hundreds of millions of dollars in evacuation costs . . . or worse . . . endanger thousands of lives by failing to act.
In September of 1999 another storm threatened the Eastern seaboard- its name was Floyd. It sparked the second largest evacuation in US history. Here is how that debacle was described by John H. Tibbets in Floyd Follies:What We've Learned:
At least 3.5 million people from four states—Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina—evacuated during Hurricane Floyd. It was the largest evacuation in U.S. history. Lines of cars backed up for hundreds of miles on several interstates. Trips that would have taken two hours on a normal day took 16 or 18. Many evacuees could not find bathrooms, motel rooms, or shelters. Cars ran out of gas or broke down, littering highways and small roads.
“It was a horrendous evacuation,” says Don Lewis, an evacuation expert with Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan, a consulting firm based in Tallahassee, Florida.
Floyd was (intermittently) a CAT 4 storm, and was approaching South Florida from roughly the same angle that Ike appears to be today. Both are following similar paths to that of disastrous Hurricane Andrew of 1992.
As you can see, Floyd threatened, but did not hit Florida. In fact, it moved north and went in near Cape Fear as a CAT 2 storm.
There were a lot of unhappy people after Floyd. Some may remember that debacle and be less likely to evacuate this time.
Hopefully, the lessons from that storm, and from the storms since then (notably Rita in Texas), have enabled us to better handle another massive evacuation. But even so, it would be a horrendous undertaking.
You can bet that tonight, and certainly no later than tomorrow, EOC's all over south Florida will activate their emergency plans. EMS, Fire, and Law Enforcement agencies will review their contingency plans. Leaves will be canceled. Plans will be made.
DMAT teams will go to high alert this weekend, along with FEMA, and other agencies.
And county officials from the Florida Keys to South Georgia will watch every advisory, every recon report, and every model update. The NHC, by the way, is in the path as well. And that could complicate matters.
Savvy residents along the East coast will begin now, if they haven't already, to prepare.
That means deciding where they will go if they must evacuate, and how they will get there. Doing what they can to protect their property against damage. Laying in needed supplies.
Putting together their bug-out bags.
Any way you slice it . . . and regardless where Ike finally ends up . . . for millions of people in Florida, it is going to be a long weekend.
