# 2285
A short time ago the following news item appeared on the wires from the Associated Press.
Hurricane Ike on track to veer away from Keys
By BRIAN SKOLOFF, Associated Press Writer
KEY WEST, Fla. - Authorities called off evacuation orders for the Florida Keys on Monday as a ferocious Hurricane Ike shifted south over Cuba and appeared on track to miss the low-lying U.S. island chain.
<snip>
Evacuation orders that had 15,000 tourists flee the Keys over the weekend were set to expire at noon Monday. Authorities suggested tourists wait until Wednesday to return and urged residents who had not left to stay indoors until any errant squalls passed.
This story makes it sound as if the danger has passed. As if it were okay to return home.
Unfortunately, that isn't quite the case.
Here is the original 11am statement from the Monroe County Office of Emergency Management.
Monroe County Office of Emergency Management
Hurricane Ike – September 8, 2008 – 11 a.m.
Keys Evacuation Order to Expire at Noon
The mandatory resident evacuation order for Hurricane Ike, set to expire at noon today, will not be extended, Keys officials said Monday morning.
The current track of Hurricane Ike takes the core of the storm well south and west of the Keys and sustained hurricane force winds should miss the island chain, meteorologists at the National Weather Service Key West office said.
A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning continues for the entire Florida Keys, from Ocean Reef through the Dry Tortugas.
The outer bands of Ike may begin effecting the Florida Keys this afternoon, meteorologists said, bringing wind and rain as the storm continues to cross southern Cuba.
Forecasters anticipate the Lower Keys and Key West will experience sustained minimal to moderate tropical storm force winds beginning late Monday night and for most of Tuesday. In the Upper and Middle Keys winds should be just below tropical storm-force.
Expected squalls through the Keys during the storm might see winds a tropical storm force and occasional gusts nearing hurricane strength.
Although this statement goes on to advise people to wait until Wednesday to return, the `tone' could certainly be interpreted as one of reassurance.
An implied, if not fully expressed, `all clear'.
In fact, the reader has to wade through 6 paragraphs before finding that `Officials counseled residents who had evacuated the Keys should wait to return until after the possibility of tropical storm winds is past . . .'
And although bolded and in red in the hastily released clarification below (and without the original softening preamble that `Officials counseled'), such was not the case in the original release.
Here is the clarification that appeared shortly after the Associated Press piece appeared.
Monroe County Office of Emergency Management
Clarification of release issued today at 11 a.m.
There seems to be some confusion about what we mean when we say “ the evacuation has expired”. The evacuation has NOT been canceled and it is NOT time for evacuees to return to the Keys. The safe time to evacuate has passed – our evacuation order for residents was in place from Sunday until Monday at noon because we wanted people to leave in time to avoid danger from the storm.
The most important points in our last press release are:
Residents who evacuated the Keys should wait to return until after the possibility of tropical storm winds is past, which should be by Wednesday morning.
There are no emergency services available in the Keys and hospitals are to remain closed until the storm is past.
Monroe County Sheriff’s Office officials urged those in the Keys to remain inside during the storm. Driving on rain-flooded streets may disable cars and being outside can be very risky with flying debris and downed live power lines.
U.S. Coast Guard officials stress that boaters should remain in port. Rough bay waters and extremely dangerous offshore seas can make boating deadly during storms.
Residents should keep a close eye on the storm as it approaches and should monitor local radio and television stations for future announcements about when it is safe to return. Both the Sheriff’s office Web site at www.keysso.net and Monroe County’s Web site at www.monroecounty-fl.gov will have details regarding when it is safe to return.
What does all of this have to do with a pandemic?
During any crisis, clear and concise communications are vital in order to protect the citizenry, and, just as importantly, to avoid panic.
Vague and `reassuring' have no place in official advice and warnings.
The first paragraph in the 11am statement was vague.
The mandatory resident evacuation order for Hurricane Ike, set to expire at noon today, will not be extended, Keys officials said Monday morning.
What does that mean?
Obviously, what may well have been apparent to emergency officials wasn't so apparent to the AP reporter. Frankly, it read to me as if the evacuation had been canceled as well.
The second paragraph of the 11am statement was reassuring that the danger had passed, and only enforced the idea that the evacuation had been canceled.
The current track of Hurricane Ike takes the core of the storm well south and west of the Keys and sustained hurricane force winds should miss the island chain, meteorologists at the National Weather Service Key West office said.
While arguably true, this paragraph could certainly have appeared further down the advisory, AFTER it was made clear that the evacuation had been shut down due to expected deteriorating weather conditions and NOT because the storm was expected to miss the island chain.
Clearly the 11am statement from Monroe County officials could have been more clearly written.
Crafting effective emergency statements during a crisis isn't easy, and often those tasked with those jobs have no formal training in risk communications.
Hopefully today's incident will be a low-impact `teachable moment' for communications directors in EOCs all across the country.
Emergency officials whose job it will be to communicate during a crisis would do well to visit the website of Dr. Peter Sandman, an expert in risk communication.
Collaborating often with his wife, physician Jody Lanard, Dr. Sandman's website is filled with scores of articles on effective risk communication.
There is a wealth of knowledge to be gleaned from his articles on crisis communications.
Highly recommended.
