# 2468
Roughly 90% of the world's population resides in the Northern Hemisphere, and so it isn't surprising that the bigger of the world's two annual flu seasons each year runs from October through about April.
Literally millions of people around the world will contract seasonal flu over the next few months, and hundreds of thousands will die due to its complications.
And along with flu season, cooler weather also brings a yearly spike in the number of avian influenza cases, both in poultry and in people.
There are also a number of other `flu-like' illnesses, including adenovirus 14, Respiratory syncytial virus, and various forms of community acquired pneumonia that circulate during the winter months.
Differentiating between these diseases can be difficult and often takes several days of testing, and this leads to a lot of `false alarms' in avian flu hot-zone countries each year.
Right now, we are watching a cluster of 17 `suspected' bird flu patients in Indonesia. We are awaiting laboratory test results. In the meantime, the hospital continues to assume these people may be infected with the H5N1 virus, which given the circumstances, is only prudent.
The media, particularly in Indonesia where this case is most newsworthy, continues to follow this story with interest. As always, news reports need to be accepted with a certain amount of caution.
These stories aren't always completely accurate. And machine translations of foreign language reports, while a valuable resource, are often even less so.
As always, Caveat Lector.
However this cluster in Indonesia turns out, we can be reasonably sure that this drama will be re-enacted around the world a number of times over the next several months.
We will be presented with news reports suggesting that one or more people may have the H5N1 virus, and then we will be forced to wait - sometimes for days - to hear the results.
While it is right that we follow each of these reports with interest, it pays not to get too `invested' in these reports.
Most will turn out to be something other than bird flu.
Egypt, for example, has tested thousands of people for the H5N1 virus over the past two years, yet only 50 have tested positive for the virus.
Regrettably, there are some countries that are not eager to confirm or deny bird flu reports. Some countries go so far as to actively block the reporting of such stories.
But even so, we can't assume that every denial, or all silence on the issue, is a cover up.
Human infections with the H5N1 virus remain extremely rare. The virus is still difficult for people to acquire and to pass on to others.
Clusters happen, but they don't happen very often.
While that may change someday, that is the reality for today. And so I tend to remain fairly skeptical about media reports of clusters, at least until we get lab tests back.
Frankly, I find it is the only way to handle the roller-coaster of news reports we encounter every flu season.
Hopefully genuine clusters will remain a rare enough occurrence that I can maintain this blasé attitude for years to come.
