# 2614
Helen Branswell, one of the most respected medical and science reporters in the business, has an excellent overview of the uncertainties that scientists face when trying to predict which virus will cause the next pandemic - and when that might happen.
This from the Canadian Press. Follow the link to read the entire article.
Researchers still don't know what to make of avian influenza strain H5N1
Provided by: Canadian Press
Written by: Helen Branswell, Medical Reporter, THE CANADIAN PRESS
Jan. 1, 2009
TORONTO - Five years after the avian influenza strain H5N1 started killing poultry and people in Southeast Asia, researchers still don't know what to make of the dangerous and unpredictable virus.
After cutting an ever-widening swath through poultry flocks and infecting - and killing - mounting numbers of people in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, the virus seemed to almost take a breather in 2008. The year that just ended saw fewer recorded human cases than any since 2003, when this cycle of H5N1 activity began.
It begs the question: Is H5N1 on the wane?
Sadly, science knows too little about how flu viruses emerge, spread and jump - or don't jump - from one species to the next to answer that question. Given the knowledge gap, influenza scientists are still pushing for pandemic preparedness.
"Whether or not H5N1 virus is going to cause a human pandemic - nobody can predict that," says Dr. Tim Uyeki, deputy chief of influenza surveillance and prevention for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.
"I believe it's still a threat. But it's not the only threat," he adds, noting a two-month-old Chinese girl was hospitalized in Hong Kong in late December with an H9N2 avian flu infection.
