# 2783
While the threat of a pandemic has been largely forgotten by private citizens, governments and scientists around the world see no reason to let down our guard. Another pandemic, they believe, is inevitable.
We just don't know when it will start, or what pathogen will spark it. It could begin tomorrow, or it might not happen for 5 or even 10 more years.
What we do know is that a severe pandemic, one as serious as the 1918 Spanish flu . . .or worse, could cause millions of deaths and massive disruption in our society, and our economy.
In 1918, at a time when the fastest mode of travel was steamship, the killer influenza spread around the world in a matter of months. Today, with modern air travel, a novel virus has the potential to do so in days or weeks.
Some countries, particularly island nations, are in hopes of preventing the spread of a pandemic virus onto their shores.
New Zealand is one nation that is seriously considering a national quarantine, although no final decision has been announced (see New Zealand: Testing Pandemic Quarantine Plans)
And we can now add Japan to the list.
Today's announcement comes on the heels of the Panasonic's somewhat surprising move to bring home families of ex-pat employees working in certain foreign countries. The electronics giant issued the edict in December, and requested all family members return by September of 2009.
The rationale behind this move remains murky, but it is unlikely that Panasonic has any special insight on the timing of the next pandemic.
Whether any nation could prevent a pandemic virus from reaching their shores remains to be seen. It is an ambitious goal, and in the end may only serve to slow down the introduction of a pandemic to a nation.
Closing airports and ports, and restricting travel would no doubt inflict a significant economic penalty on any country, and their trading partners as well.
The long-term sustainability of any national quarantine strategy is questionable.
Still, every week gained is another week to manufacture and eventually deliver vaccines, and to prepare.
This report from the Associated Press.
Japan has flu plan to block entry, spread of virus
The Associated Press
Published: February 12, 2009
TOKYO: Japan's plan for any future influenza pandemic calls for shutting down airports, closing schools and organizing mass cremations of the dead in hopes of keeping the virus off its shores or at least containing it.
The government plan estimates that a new human flu virus could infect a quarter of the Japanese population and force 40 percent of the work force to stay home. It could cause as many as 640,000 deaths in Japan if it were to spread across the country, the Health Ministry said Thursday.
"It is important to delay as much as possible the virus' entry through measures such as strengthening quarantine to take advantage of the special qualities of our nation as an island nation," it said.
<snip>
Japan's plan would keep open just four airports and three ports, where a strict quarantine would try to prevent the virus' entry if it emerges overseas. Charter flights would bring healthy Japanese back home, but those infected would be asked stay abroad and foreigners would be restricted from entry.
If an outbreak occurs in Japan, the government plans to shut down schools and discourage people from going to places where large numbers of people gather, such as concerts and movie theaters, and to cremate bodies of victims within 24 hours.
