# 3149
Today during a press conference Dr. Keiji Fukuda of the World Health Organization said that up to 1/3rd of the world could become infected by the A/H1N1 `swine flu’ virus.
A harmless enough statement, particularly if made in front of scientists who already understand that a 33% attack rate is about right for a novel influenza virus.
But uttered in front of a pack of news reporters, all looking for today’s headline and sound bite, it has already produced all-too-predictable results.
Even though, before the news conference ended, Dr. Fukuda emphasized that it was not a prediction.
But of course, by then, it was too late.
He’d already given the media today’s headline.
2 Billion Infected? WHO Stokes Swine Flu Fear ABCNEWS.com
Flu could infect a third of the world: WHO Canada.com - Vancouver 17:13
Is this really news?
While we don’t know what the attack rate of this virus will be, an estimate of 33% is probably quite reasonable for a novel influenza virus.
It is the same attack rate estimate you can find published (for years) on nearly every pandemic flu site in the world.
Like www.pandemicflu.gov.
Dr. Fukuda certainly has my sympathies. He simply stated the obvious. He just made the mistake of saying in front of the media.
Perhaps he should have known better.
No doubt, given the disclaimer at the end of the conference that it `wasn’t a prediction’, someone in the WHO camp realized that the press was going to leap on that statement like a duck on a junebug.
And now, some in the media are accusing the WHO of `stoking swine flu fears’ while, of course, printing the story.
It is a shame that we can’t seem to discuss calmly, and rationally, various pandemic scenarios without everyone getting in such a tizzy over it.
You know. Like adults.
