# 3181
Over the past couple of weeks we’ve heard various media outlets pontificate that a vaccine would probably be available `in the fall’ for this novel A/H1N1 virus that has recently emerged out of Mexico.
While not spelling out any details, the suggestion here is `not to worry, you’ll have a vaccine’.
This, despite the fact that the CDC has not been willing to even speculate when a vaccine would be available, or how many doses could be produced in a specific period of time.
As I wrote (see A Vaccine Reality Check) several days ago, the road to a vaccine is a long and rocky one. And while some quantity of vaccine may be available by fall, the odds are slim that there would be enough to begin mass vaccinations of the American (or any other nation’s) public.
Selected high risk groups, however, may begin to see a vaccine sometime in the Fall – but the amount that can be produced and dispensed right now is unknown.
As of today, no decision has even been made to go ahead with the mass production of a vaccine.
Today, in an article that appears in the New Scientist Magazine, we get essentially the same reality check.
Swine flu vaccine won't be ready for next wave
A VACCINE against the Mexican swine flu sweeping the world is likely to arrive too late for most people, vaccine officials told New Scientist between a flurry of high-level industry meetings this week.
The World Health Organization is now considering whether to advise the world's vaccine makers to switch from ordinary flu vaccine to the Mexican H1N1. As New Scientist went to press, a pandemic was officially on the cards, but even if the WHO gives the go-ahead, vaccine will arrive too late for many.
Studies so far suggest that H1N1 has been only slightly more lethal than ordinary flu (see "Preparing for when swine flu returns"). But while regular seasonal flu hits the very elderly hardest, this virus affects the young (see chart). And there are fears that it could become worse in subsequent waves like previous pandemics. "We are starting experiments to see what changes make this virus more dangerous," says Ab Osterhaus of Erasmus University in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Vaccine makers are left with a dilemma. "If we make ordinary vaccine and the pandemic comes instead, we will be blamed," says Norbert Hehme, chair of the industry's flu vaccine task force. "If we make pandemic vaccine and get ordinary flu, we will have a shortage of ordinary vaccine, so we will also be blamed."
So the industry will not switch to H1N1 vaccine without WHO approval and the go-ahead from governments with vaccine contracts, says Bram Palache, chair of the European Vaccine Manufacturers (EVM) flu vaccine group. And even if that happens soon, there will be none before September because of the time needed to produce it.
