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Asymptomatic carriers of the H1N1 swine flu, according to a New Zealand Virologist, are likely to make up as much as 30% of those infected with the virus.
It is known that those with sub clinical infections can shed the virus, but very little science exists to tell us how effectively they spread the virus to others.
Obviously, someone with a hacking cough or a powerful sneeze is more likely to put virus rich droplets into the air.
Still, it is likely that asymptomatic carriers can pass the virus on to others, which makes it virtually impossible to prevent the virus from spreading, despite attempts to identify those who are sick and isolating them.
Swine flu risk from hidden carriers
4:00AM Tuesday Jun 23, 2009
By Martin Johnston
Steve Brazier says the number of local deaths is unlikely to exceed 200. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Almost a third of people infected with swine flu will show no symptoms but will still be able to spread the virus.
The Ministry of Health says up to half New Zealand's population could contract the A/H1N1 virus.
About 70 per cent of those will show symptoms. The rest could appear perfectly healthy and not know they are carrying - and spreading - the virus.
Christchurch virologist Dr Lance Jennings said the 30 per cent of infected people who had no symptoms still "shed" the virus, although they probably spread the disease less than those who developed symptoms such as coughing.
The ministry estimates that swine flu will kill up to 200 people in New Zealand.
The head of the ministry's national health co-ordination centre, Steve Brazier, told the health sector in an update of the pandemic action plan that the number of deaths was unlikely to exceed 200, "and more recent estimates suggest it may be substantially fewer".
Seasonal influenza usually kills more than 400 people a year directly or by exacerbating an underlying health condition.
