# 3371
To be quite frank about it, no one really knows what this, or any future pandemic will bring.
The oft repeated assumptions that many governments, businesses, and agencies have built their pandemic plans on are just that; assumptions.
Epidemiologists are fond of saying, “that if you’ve seen one pandemic . . .you’ve seen one pandemic.”
The three influenza pandemics of the last century shared some traits, of course, but they each were very different events. What the H1N1 `swine’ flu will bring over the next 2, 3, or even 5 years is anyone’s guess.
The `working assumption’ on attack rates (the percentage of the population that gets sick during a pandemic) is usually pegged around 30% – which is about what we saw in the 1918 Spanish Flu.
Why 70% of the population didn’t get sick is unknown.
Some may have had a prior exposure to a similar virus, assuming they’d been alive before 1889. But a great many, despite exposure, never developed any illness.
It is assumed they had asymptomatic, or sub-clinical infections.
So most pandemic plans have used the 30% attack rate. Now, in the UK, planners are cautioning that the attack rate of the H1N1 virus could be higher.
How high?
Well, no one really knows.
But they are advising that the country prepare for up to 50% to fall ill over the next year.
Swine flu 'could infect up to half the population'
Health authorities told to set up testing and drug distribution centres in case of autumn outbreak
By Jonathan Owen
Sunday, 21 June 2009
A medical researcher working to produce a DNA test for swine flu, which is spreading more quickly in the UK
Primary care trusts are to set up anti-viral drug distribution centres and swine flu testing clinics amid fears that the infection could spread out of control.
The Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, wrote to health authorities last week urging hospitals to test all patients who show signs of flu-like symptoms. He wrote: "Transmission from person to person in this country is increasingly common. There is evidence that sporadic cases are arising with no apparent link either to cases elsewhere in the UK or to travel abroad."
The letter followed an earlier warning from Sir Liam that millions of Britons could fall victim to swine flu in the coming months. Government officials admitted last night that illness rates from the virus could reach 50 per cent.
Primary care trusts are now being briefed to expect that the pandemic could affect as much as 40 per cent of the workforce before the end of the year, with many worried that there could be a surge of cases in the autumn, according to health industry sources.
The Department of Health sought to reassure the public last night. A spokesman said: "Previous pandemics have seen total illness levels of 25-35 per cent. So our plans are as robust as possible, we have based them on illness rates of 50 per cent, though we do not anticipate it being this high in the current pandemic. Based on this figure, the workforce could be reduced by 15-20 per cent at the pandemic's peak. In the unlikely event that every school closed, this could rise to 35 per cent." He said it was impossible to predict when the pandemic would peak, but added: "As part of ongoing planning, the NHS is being asked to ensure that antiviral collection points could, if needed, be put into action in a week."
Keen to avoid panic, the Government is careful to present official statistics showing "laboratory-confirmed" cases, which currently stand at 2,244. Yet the true scale of infections is far higher than headline figures suggest. The total number of cases either confirmed by laboratory tests or "clinically presumed" currently stands at 3,725.
