# 3543
Hard to believe, but the first word that we had of a novel H1N1 virus emerging out of Mexico came just about 90 days ago. And in that short span, the virus has spread rapidly around the world, and has now been reported in at least 160 countries.
As has been predicted for a number of years, in this age of airline travel and global interconnectedness, a novel virus can spread quickly and respects no borders.
The virus, so far, appears to produce mild symptoms in most of its victims, but in some small percentage (and that percentage is up for debate), it can produce severe – even fatal – illness.
Which is why Dr. Anne Schuchat of the CDC refused to characterize this virus as `mild’ in yesterday’s telephone conference.
“I don't like to use the word "mild" for the new H1N1 influenza virus. I actually think this is a virus that's capable of causing a spectrum of illness that includes severe complications and death.” – Dr. Anne Schuchat.
Today, after new estimates of this flu’s impact on the country were released yesterday by the CDC, we are seeing renewed media attention to this crisis.
Swine flu warning: CDC estimates ratchet up H1N1 risk
By Thomas H. Maugh II Tribune Newspapers
July 25, 2009
LOS ANGELES - — Hundreds of thousands of Americans could die of swine flu over the next two years if the vaccine for the H1N1 influenza is not effective, and at the pandemic's peak as much as 40 percent of the work force could be affected, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Also, worldwide, as many as one-third of Earth's roughly 6.8 billion people are likely to become infected with the virus, according to the World Health Organization.
Although potentially frightening, the numbers are not dramatically different from the number of cases that might be encountered in a bad winter of seasonal flu. Even in an unremarkable year, an estimated 36,000 Americans die from complications of the flu.
The scenario painted above is the `worst-case’ scenario, based on the current perceived virulence of this virus.
Not necessarily the most likely outcome.
As we move towards fall and winter, we will likely hear a lot of projections and estimates, and in many cases they will contain conflicting, sometimes worrisome information.
The CDC estimates 40% of Americans will catch this virus, while the WHO suggests 33% of the world will become infected. Meanwhile, three days ago, scientists in New Zealand predicted 78% of their country would become infected.
That’s a pretty wide range of scenarios.
Which goes to prove that while interesting (and useful for planning purposes), all of these projections and estimates are little more than guesses.
Educated guesses, perhaps – based on observations and assumptions – but guesses nonetheless.
Which is why, even though I report them, I tend not to put a lot of faith in them. Historians have the best shot, years from now, of coming up with reasonable numbers for this pandemic.
But even they may find it difficult.
We don’t know how many people died in any of the 3 pandemics of the last century. The 1957 pandemic – to which this virus is often compared – is estimated to have claimed anywhere from 1 to 4 million lives.
Again, a pretty wide range.
One thing for sure, scientists are going to collect more data about this pandemic event than ever before. Enough to spark years of debate and hundreds of scholarly studies.
Which, if we are smart, we will use to put us in better shape to deal with the next pandemic that comes down the pike.
