# 3487
A little more than a month into this pandemic, and I confess, I don’t have any clue as to where this thing will lead us. On the surface, the low numbers of fatalities we’ve seen so far are encouraging.
Not that each and every death doesn’t represent a tragedy – but we’ve not seen the sort of horrendous fatality rates we’ve come to associate with truly severe pandemics.
And as I’ve pointed out before, it is hard not to take that as a good sign.
But numbers, particularly early numbers, can be deceiving.
And by now, everyone should know that flu viruses mutate, and the pandemic we see today may be quite different from the pandemic we see next month, or next year.
So I remain cautiously on guard, sobered by the knowledge that things could easily change, and also by the fact that we are only seeing the tip of this pandemic.
The fatality rate has probably been greatly reduced in countries like the United States, Canada, the UK, and Australia simply because of our modern medical system and our stockpile (and aggressive use) of antivirals.
Advantages that not all countries share, and advantages that at some point may become moot even in Industrialized nations.
While the small percentage of seriously ill patients so far have been able to receive advanced care in hospitals, when the total number of cases increases this fall and winter, that may not always be possible.
And of course, the future value of our antiviral stockpile is unknown as well. Today, and hopefully for some time to come, Tamiflu will continue to be effective in reducing the severity of symptoms.
But at some point, it is feared this virus will pick up resistance to this drug, which would severely crimp our treatment options.
A mutation in the virus, the overloading of our hospitals, or the loss of part of our antiviral arsenal could all contribute to a higher mortality rate down the road.
We should be prepared for that possibility.
So, just as we can’t very well deduce the winner of the Daytona 500 stock car race after watching the first lap, it is impossible to predict how this pandemic will play out next month, or six or even eighteen months from now.
Anyone who tells you that they know, is just guessing.
This pandemic certainly has the potential to evolve into a a more serious one. And so we’d be foolish to ignore that threat.
A pandemic that sickens a great many people, but kills relatively few, can still have profound effects on our society and our economy.
Something that the peoples of Mexico and Argentina can attest to.
We aren’t out of the woods by any means, regardless of the eventual CFR of this virus. The one thing I will predict about this pandemic is that we are going to be surprised along the way.
Since there is no knowing how this will turn out, the prudent individual, family, business, and community will prepare as if this is going to be a high impact event.
If we get lucky, and things turn out to be less serious, we can thank our good fortune. But it is far better to be prepared, and not need it, than to be caught unprepared in a crisis.
And about that, I’m not at sixes and sevens at all.
For more information on preparedness, you can go to any of these reputable sites.
FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm
READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/
AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/
For Pandemic Preparedness Information: HHS Individual Planning Page
For more in-depth emergency preparedness information I can think of no better resource than GetPandemicReady.Org.
You can also help by volunteering with the American Red Cross, The Medical Reserve Corps, CERT, or your Neighborhood watch.
