Thursday, October 01, 2009

TFAH Report: H1N1 Challenges Ahead

 

 

#3790

 

TFAH, or the Trust For America’s Health, is a non-profit organization that audits and reports on public health issues in the United States.   I’ve highlighted a number of their previous reports, including:

 

 

Pandemic Flu: Lessons From the Frontlines

  • June 2009

    Pandemic Flu: Lessons From the Frontlines

     

    Shortchanging America's Health 2009

    March 2009
    Shortchanging America's Health 2009
    A State-By-State Look at How Federal Public Health Dollars are Spent

    Ready or Not? 2008

    December 2008
    Ready or Not? 2008
    Protecting the Public's Health from Disease, Disasters, and Bioterrorism

    Germs Go Global

    October 2008
    Germs Go Global
    Why Emerging Infectious Diseases Are a Threat to America

    Blueprint for a Healthier America

    October 2008
    Blueprint for a Healthier America
    Modernizing the Federal Public Health System to Focus on Prevention and Preparedness

  •  

     

    Today TFAH releases a new report that warns of the potential shortage of hospital beds during the coming months, assuming this virus remains no more virulent than the 1968 pandemic.

     

    What follows is a small excerpt.  Follow the link to read (and download) the entire report.

     

     

    H1N1 Challenges Ahead

     

    October 2009

    Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) released a new report that finds 15 states could run out of available hospital beds during the peak of the outbreak, if 35 percent of Americans were to get sick from the H1N1 flu virus. Twelve additional states could reach or exceed 75 percent of their hospital bed capacity, based on estimates from the FluSurge model developed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The report, H1N1 Challenges Ahead, estimates that the number of people hospitalized could range from a high of 168,025 in California to a low of 2,485 in Wyoming, and many states may face shortages of beds or may need to reduce the number of non-flu related discretionary hospitalizations due to limited hospital bed availability. The numbers of people who get sick could range from a high of 12.9 million in California to a low of 186,434 in Wyoming, if 35 percent of Americans were to get H1N1.

    < LARGE SNIP>

    Hospital Bed Capacity at Five Weeks into a Pandemic

    These estimates are for the peak of an outbreak, based on CDC''s FluSurge, using expert predictions that H1N1 is a relatively mild strain of the flu, similar to the 1968 pandemic flu, and that up to 35 percent of Americans could potentially become sick with H1N1:

    • 15 states would be at or exceed hospital bed capacity: Arizona (117%); California (125%); Connecticut (148%); Delaware (203%); Hawaii (143%); Maryland (143%); Massachusetts (110%); Nevada (137%); New Jersey (101%); New York (108%); Oregon (107%); Rhode Island (143%); Vermont (108%); Virginia (100%); and Washington (107%).
    • 12 states would be at 75 to 99 percent of their hospital bed capacity: Colorado (88%); Florida (80%); Georgia (78%); Maine (83%); Michigan (79%); New Hampshire (84%); New Mexico (93%); North Carolina (95%); Pennsylvania (77%); South Carolina (93%); Utah (83%); and Wisconsin (75%).

     

    (Continue . . . )

     

     

    H1N1 Challenges Ahead (0.38MB .pdf)

    Press Release