# 3863
From the very beginning, experts stated that with our current technology, it would take roughly six months after any outbreak of a novel virus before large quantities of a pandemic vaccine could be made available to the public.
The very fact that some quantity of vaccine has rolled out after only 5 months has to be looked at as a bit of a victory.
For reasons I can’t even begin to fathom, however, officials `over-promised’ the quantity of vaccine that would be available in October.
And not by a little. By a lot.
And not just here in the US, but all around the world.
I openly worried about this back in July with Murphy's Laws And Vaccine Production, where I wrote:
For reasons that, quite frankly, elude me . . . it seems as if a lot of public officials around the world are awfully quick to promise too much, too soon in regards to delivering a pandemic vaccine.
The average person in the United States, and probably in the UK and of Europe as well, no doubt believes they will be rolling up their sleeves for a swine flu shot in September . . . or perhaps October or November at the latest.
Two months before that, in A Vaccine Reality Check, I listed some of the things that could go wrong in the production of a vaccine, and among them was:
The virus may not grow well in eggs (that happens sometimes), reducing the amount of antigen that can be produced.
Which is exactly what happened. Production yields from eggs have been disappointing. Of course, I listed so many possibilities, it is hardly surprising that I got one of them right.
On August 14th, CIDRAP News reported:
Officials lower expectations for size of first novel flu vaccine deliveries
Lisa Schnirring
Staff Writer
Aug 14, 2009 (CIDRAP News) – Federal officials today during a pandemic H1N1 planning update dialed back the number of novel flu vaccine doses they expect in October from 120 million to 45 million, listing several reasons for the smaller projection.
During a late July meeting of a federal immunization advisory panel, which targeted 159 million people to receive the first doses, authorities projected that 120 million doses would be available in October, with another 80 million per month in the following months.
That 45 million dose estimate by `mid-October’ has now dropped to under 30 million by the end of the month.
And that’s just what is expected to be available. Not shipped . . . and not in the arms and noses of the public.
I know that this is going to be perceived as a monumental failure by some, but it really isn’t.
Getting nearly 30 million doses of vaccine out the door in less than 6 months is actually quite an accomplishment. I’ve no doubt that the CDC, and the vaccine manufacturers have been moving heaven and earth to get this done.
Disappointing? Yes.
But this is simply what everyone expected last April; that it would probably reasonably take until November before a pandemic vaccine could become widely available.
Over the summer there were obviously hopes that production could do better, but those hopes simply didn’t pan out.
Officials may have over promised, but I’m disinclined to want to harangue them for trying. It was a noble attempt, and it yielded more October fruit than I would have guessed last May.
Here is an update from USAToday, with some choice comments by Dr. Michael Osterholm of CIDRAP.
Swine flu vaccine is running a month behind
By Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY
Vaccine for the H1N1 flu won't be widely available until November — a month later than first thought — and some states are expecting delays to last until December.
"Ten days ago or two weeks ago it was thought end of October" that lots of vaccine would be available, said Donn Moyer of the Washington State Department of Health. Now health officials are hearing "the beginning or middle of November."
<SNIP>
"The vaccine's in a race against the virus, and right now the virus is winning," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "I just had three meetings canceled because people were sick."
It's not that the government hasn't done everything it could to get the vaccine made, he said. "They've just overpromised on when the vaccine is going to get here."
