Wednesday, November 18, 2009

China: 90% Of Flu Now Novel H1N1

 

 

# 4033

 

 

Just over a month ago, in the WHO’s Pandemic update # 70  we were advised:

 

Of note, nearly half of the influenza viruses detected in China are seasonal influenza A (H3N2) viruses, which appeared prior to and is co-circulating with pandemic H1N1 2009 virus.

 

Two weeks later (see China: H1N1 Becoming Dominant Flu Virus) we learned via Xinhua News:

 

According to the National Influenza Surveillance Network, monitoring data, Influenza A H1N1 positive samples accounted for the proportion of all influenza-positive specimens has reached more than 70%.

 

This suggests that influenza A H1N1 influenza virus in China has been widely taken root and become the dominant virus, influenza virus.

 

And now the Chinese Health Ministry is reporting that 90% of the influenza samples tested last week were the novel H1N1 virus.   A remarkable jump in prevalence in just over a month’s time.

 

 

Nearly 90% flu in China last week were A/H1N1: ministry

 

www.chinaview.cn  2009-11-18 21:07:37

    BEIJING, Nov. 18 (Xinhua) -- The A/H1N1 influenza cases accounted for 89.4 percent of all flu cases reported in the Chinese mainland last week, almost 3 percentage points higher than the figure of the previous week, China's Ministry of Health said Wednesday.

 

    The mainland reported 10,828 cases of A/H1N1 flu from Nov. 9 to 15, with 28 deaths, said a notice issued on the ministry's website.

 

   The ministry advised the public to keep warm in cold and snowy weather, wash hands frequently and keep rooms ventilated.

 

   The ministry also said starting from this Wednesday, it would update A/H1N1 flu information only once a week. Previously, it offered updates three times a week.

 

    Latest figures from the ministry showed that almost 70,000 A/H1N1 flu cases had been reported in the mainland by Sunday, with 53 deaths in total, and that about 16.6 million people had been vaccinated.

 

 

The number of infected, and the death totals are almost certainly massively undercounted in China, as they are everywhere else in the world.  

 

The novel H1N1 virus – for reasons we don’t understand very well – is doing a very good job of crowding out the other seasonal flu strains (H1N1, H3N2, B viruses). 

 

It is too soon, however, to know whether these seasonal strains will make a  resurgence later this year or next.